Here's Why We're Wary Of Buying Cheesecake Factory's (NASDAQ:CAKE) For Its Upcoming Dividend
It looks like The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (NASDAQ:CAKE) is about to go ex-dividend in the next four days. The ex-dividend date occurs one day before the record date which is the day on which shareholders need to be on the company's books in order to receive a dividend. The ex-dividend date is important because any transaction on a stock needs to have been settled before the record date in order to be eligible for a dividend. Meaning, you will need to purchase Cheesecake Factory's shares before the 7th of March to receive the dividend, which will be paid on the 21st of March.
The company's next dividend payment will be US$0.27 per share. Last year, in total, the company distributed US$1.08 to shareholders. Last year's total dividend payments show that Cheesecake Factory has a trailing yield of 2.8% on the current share price of $38.18. If you buy this business for its dividend, you should have an idea of whether Cheesecake Factory's dividend is reliable and sustainable. So we need to investigate whether Cheesecake Factory can afford its dividend, and if the dividend could grow.
See our latest analysis for Cheesecake Factory
If a company pays out more in dividends than it earned, then the dividend might become unsustainable - hardly an ideal situation. Last year Cheesecake Factory paid out 94% of its profits as dividends to shareholders, suggesting the dividend is not well covered by earnings. Yet cash flow is typically more important than profit for assessing dividend sustainability, so we should always check if the company generated enough cash to afford its dividend. It paid out 87% of its free cash flow as dividends, which is within usual limits but will limit the company's ability to lift the dividend if there's no growth.
It's good to see that while Cheesecake Factory's dividends were not well covered by profits, at least they are affordable from a cash perspective. Still, if this were to happen repeatedly, we'd be concerned about whether the dividend is sustainable in a downturn.
Click here to see the company's payout ratio, plus analyst estimates of its future dividends.
Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing?
When earnings decline, dividend companies become much harder to analyse and own safely. If earnings fall far enough, the company could be forced to cut its dividend. Readers will understand then, why we're concerned to see Cheesecake Factory's earnings per share have dropped 24% a year over the past five years. Such a sharp decline casts doubt on the future sustainability of the dividend.
The main way most investors will assess a company's dividend prospects is by checking the historical rate of dividend growth. Since the start of our data, 10 years ago, Cheesecake Factory has lifted its dividend by approximately 8.4% a year on average. The only way to pay higher dividends when earnings are shrinking is either to pay out a larger percentage of profits, spend cash from the balance sheet, or borrow the money. Cheesecake Factory is already paying out a high percentage of its income, so without earnings growth, we're doubtful of whether this dividend will grow much in the future.
Final Takeaway
Is Cheesecake Factory worth buying for its dividend? Earnings per share have been shrinking in recent times. Additionally, Cheesecake Factory is paying out quite a high percentage of its earnings, and more than half its cash flow, so it's hard to evaluate whether the company is reinvesting enough in its business to improve its situation. Overall it doesn't look like the most suitable dividend stock for a long-term buy and hold investor.
With that being said, if you're still considering Cheesecake Factory as an investment, you'll find it beneficial to know what risks this stock is facing. Our analysis shows 3 warning signs for Cheesecake Factory that we strongly recommend you have a look at before investing in the company.
Generally, we wouldn't recommend just buying the first dividend stock you see. Here's a curated list of interesting stocks that are strong dividend payers.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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