MetLife (MET) Gears Up for Q1 Earnings: What to Expect?
MetLife, Inc. MET is scheduled to report first-quarter 2022 earnings on May 4, after the closing bell.
Q1 Estimates
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MET’s first-quarter earnings per share is pegged at $1.63, suggesting a decline of 25.9% from the prior-year reported figure.
The consensus mark for revenues stands at $17.1 billion, which indicates growth of 2.5% from the year-ago quarter.
Earnings Surprise History
MetLife boasts an impressive earnings surprise history. Its bottom line beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 48.16%. This is depicted in the chart below:
MetLife, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
MetLife, Inc. price-eps-surprise | MetLife, Inc. Quote
Factors to Note
MetLife’s first-quarter revenues are likely to reflect benefits stemming from higher premiums. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for premiums is pegged at $10.5 billion, which suggests growth of 2.1% from the prior-year quarter. Meanwhile, reduced net investment income and lower universal life and investment-type product policy fees might have dampened MET’s top-line growth in the to-be-reported quarter.
The consensus mark for net investment income and universal life and investment-type product policy fees stand at $4.8 billion and $1.4 billion, indicating a decline of 10.3% and 0.3%, respectively, from the year-ago quarter.
Delving into performances of its businesses, unfavorable underwriting margins within the Group Benefits sub-segment may have negatively impacted MetLife’s U.S. segment. Nevertheless, Retirement and Income Solutions (“RIS”) (another sub-segment of U.S. business) might have partly negated the downside stemming from better variable investment income and volume growth in the to-be-reported quarter.
The Asia segment of MetLife might have gained from improved variable investment income, favorable expense margins and volume growth in the first quarter. However, reduced recurring interest margins and persistent incidence of COVID-19 claims resulting in unfavorable underwriting margin are likely to have weighed on the Asia segment’s growth prospects.
In the Latin America segment, rise in recurring interest margins and volume, partly offset by pandemic-related claims, may have shaped the segment’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
Performance of MetLife’s Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) segment might have suffered due to unfavorable underwriting results coupled with escalating expenses.
Continuous pursuit of technology investments may have weighed on the first-quarter bottom line of MET.
What Our Quantitative Model Predicts
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for MetLife this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.
Earnings ESP: MetLife has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: MET carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks to Consider
While earnings beat looks uncertain for MetLife, here are some companies from the insurance space that you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:
ProAssurance Corporation PRA has an Earnings ESP of +27.54% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ProAssurance’s first-quarter earnings is pegged at 17 cents, suggesting an increase to more than four-fold from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.
The bottom line of PRA beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters in 2021.
NMI Holdings, Inc. NMIH has an Earnings ESP of +4.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NMI Holdings' first-quarter earnings stands at 75 cents, which highlights a rise of 21% from the prior-year quarter's reported figure.
NMIH beat earnings estimates in each of the four reported quarters in 2021.
Primerica, Inc. PRI has an Earnings ESP of +3.68% and a Zacks Rank #3, currently. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Primerica’ first-quarter earnings is pegged at $2.79, which indicates a 14.3% increase from the prior-year quarter.
PRI beat earnings estimates in two of the trailing four quarters in 2021 and missed twice.
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MetLife, Inc. (MET) : Free Stock Analysis Report
ProAssurance Corporation (PRA) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Primerica, Inc. (PRI) : Free Stock Analysis Report
NMI Holdings Inc (NMIH) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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