The Cost of Climate Change in Every State
How much will climate change cost the U.S. by the end of the century? It’s impossible to know in advance, but that doesn’t mean it’s impossible to make projections. GOBankingRates looked at the projected numbers for each state using county-level estimates published in the journal Science and on Governing.com.
The economic cost of climate change includes changing labor productivity, increased power consumption for air conditioning and crops responding differently to different temperatures. Most states are expected to see their economies shrink as a result of the cost of climate change, but the numbers vary substantially from state to state.
Click through to see how climate change could impact your state’s economy by the end of the century.
Last updated July 25, 2019.
Alabama
Change to state GDP: -$1.4B
While $1.4B sounds like a big loss, that only represents 0.7 percent of Alabama’s GDP and only the 37th-largest loss among the states.
Alaska
Change to state GDP: -$3.3B
The $3.3B damage to Alaska’s GPD would represent a 6.4 percent decline, the sixth-largest percentage decline nationwide. Even though the state has the fifth-smallest GDP, the change would be the 32nd largest.
Arizona
Change to state GDP: -$17.4B
Arizona is expected to suffer the 10th-largest hit to GDP in the country at over $17 billion. The GDP is expected to decline 5.4 percent — the 11th-largest decline.
Arkansas
Change to state GDP: -$4.2B
Arkansas’ anticipated $4.2 billion decline from climate change is the 28th-biggest decline. But, Arkansas only has the 34th-largest economy, so the loss ranks 18th by percentage.
California
Change to state GDP: -$59.6B
By raw numbers, California will have the third-largest climate change-related projected decline at almost $60 billion. However, California has the largest GDP of any state, so it’s only a 2.2 percent decline.
Colorado
Change to state GDP: -$1.2B
Colorado’s GDP is expected to decline more than $1.2 billion due to climate change, which is only 0.4 percent of the state’s GDP. It’s also the seventh-smallest percentage decline.
Connecticut
Change to state GDP: -$0.4B
Connecticut is expected to suffer the seventh-smallest GDP drop from climate change at less than half a billion dollars, or just 0.2 percent of the state’s GPD. That’s the sixth-smallest percentage drop.
Delaware
Change to state GDP: -$6.2B
Delaware’s GDP projected drop of almost $6.2 billion the 24th largest — right in the middle of the pack by dollar value. However, Delaware has the 41st-smallest GDP, so it’s the third-largest drop by percentage at 8.1 percent.
Florida
Change to state GDP: -$100.9B
Florida is projected to suffer the biggest loss in GDP both in dollar amount and percentage. The more than $100 billion projected loss is over 10 percent of the state’s GDP.
Georgia
Change to state GDP: -$34.2B
Georgia is expected to suffer the fifth-largest GDP drop from climate change. But, the over $34 billion decline is only the seventh-largest percentage drop at 6.1 percent.
Hawaii
Change to state GDP: -$1.9B
Hawaii is expected to suffer almost $2 billion in GDP losses from global warming, the 36th-largest decline. That drop represents 2.2 percent of the state’s GDP.
Idaho
Change to state GDP: -$1.0B
Idaho is projected to suffer the 12th-smallest GDP drop at just under $1 billion. That decline equals 1.4 percent of the state’s GDP — the 35th-largest percentage drop.
Illinois
Change to state GDP: -$8.0B
Illinois’ state GDP is expected to decline almost $8 billion from climate change. That’s the 21st-largest drop by dollar amount, but only the 38th-largest percentage drop because Illinois has the fifth-largest GDP.
Indiana
Change to state GDP: -$9.4B
Indiana is expected to have a much bigger GDP drop than its neighbor, Illinois. Because Indiana’s GDP is smaller to begin with, the percentage drop is higher at 2.6 percent.
Iowa
Change to state GDP: -$5.8B
Iowa’s $5.8 billion anticipated GDP decline from climate change is the 25th-largest in the nation. But, at 3.1 percent, it ranks slightly higher on a percentage basis, coming in at 19th place.
Kansas
Change to state GDP: -$6.3B
Kansas is expected to suffer a $6.3 billion loss from global warming, representing 4.1 percent of the state’s GDP. That’s the 15th-largest GDP decline on a percentage basis.
Kentucky
Change to state GDP: -$16.2B
Kentucky is expected to suffer the 11th-largest GDP loss based on dollar amount. However, Kentucky’s total GDP is only $205 billion, so the 7.9 percent decline is the fourth-largest nationwide.
Louisiana
Change to state GDP: -$21.8B
Louisiana’s projected GDP decline from climate change is the sixth-largest based on dollar amount. Because the state’s GDP is currently just the 24th-largest, however, its 8.9 percent projected drop is the second-largest.
Maine
Change to state GDP: -$0.9B
Maine’s GDP is expected to drop less than $0.9 billion, the 40th-largest drop. The projected decline is only 1.4 percent of the state’s GDP.
Maryland
Change to state GDP: -$11.0B
Maryland’s projected GDP loss from climate change is the 15th-largest. However, it has an almost $400 billion economy, so the loss is just 2.8 percent.
Massachusetts
Change to state GDP: $0.7B
Massachusetts is one of the few states where the economy is projected to grow as a result of climate change. A $0.7 billion increase isn’t much, but it’s not going down.
Michigan
Change to state GDP: -$5.2B
Michigan is expecting to see its GDP drop by over $5.1 billion. The state has the 12th-largest economy, so its 1 percent anticipated decline is the 39th-largest drop.
Minnesota
Change to state GDP: -$2.4B
Minnesota’s projected GDP loss is the 34th largest in the country. Plus, with the 17th-largest economy to begin with, the state will only suffer a 0.7 percent decline.
Mississippi
Change to state GDP: -$6.8B
Mississippi stands to lose close to $7 billion per year from climate change, representing 6 percent of the state’s GDP. That percentage is the eighth-largest loss in the country.
Missouri
Change to state GDP: -$12.8B
Missouri’s projected GDP losses from climate change rank it 14th overall in both dollar amount and percentage. The anticipated losses represent over 4 percent of the state’s GDP.
Montana
Change to state GDP: -$0.8B
Montana stands to lose less than a billion dollars, or 1.6 percent of its GDP. That’s the ninth-smallest loss among the states.
Nebraska
Change to state GDP: -$3.6B
Nebraska’s projected $3.6 billion loss represents the 30th-largest drop. The state’s economy is smaller, making it the 20th-largest percentage drop.
Nevada
Change to state GDP: -$3.3B
Nevada is anticipated to take the 33rd-biggest financial hit from climate change. That represents a 2.2 percent decline
New Hampshire
Change to state GDP: -$0.6B
New Hampshire’s state GDP is projected to come out with limited damage — economically — from climate change. The loss is under $1 billion and less than 1 percent.
New Jersey
Change to state GDP: -$9.9B
New Jersey’s almost $10 billion projected GDP drop is the 17th largest. But the state has the eighth-largest GDP, so it’s only the 32nd-largest percentage drop.
New Mexico
Change to state GDP: -$4.2B
New Mexico’s anticipated losses of over $4 billion is only the 27th-largest dollar drop. Because the state has only the 37th-largest economy, the 4.3 percent decline is the 13th-largest.
New York
Change to state GDP: -$54.7B
New York is expected to suffer the fourth-largest hit to its GDP based on dollar loss. The state has the third-largest GDP, so the loss is only 3.5 percent — the 17th-largest.
North Carolina
Change to state GDP: -$20.2B
North Carolina is expected to see it’s GDP decline by 3.7 percent, the 16th-largest drop. Because the state has the 10th-largest GDP to begin with, the loss ranks it seventh overall in dollars.
North Dakota
Change to state GDP: -$0.8B
Climate change isn’t expected to cost North Dakota’s GDP even $1 billion. But, the state is smaller, so it’s still 1.4 percent of the economy.
Ohio
Change to state GDP: -$16.2B
Ohio’s anticipated GDP decline is the 12th-largest nationwide. The state has the seventh-largest GDP overall, so the 2.5 percent decline is only the 24th-biggest.
Oklahoma
Change to state GDP: -$10.1
Climate change is expected to cut out 5.3 percent of Oklahoma’s state GDP. That’s the 12th-largest percentage, which ranks higher than its 16th rank in dollar loss.
Oregon
Change to state GDP: -$3.5B
Oregon ranks 31st for largest projected loss due to climate change in dollars. Its 1.5 percent loss is the 34th-largest.
Pennsylvania
Change to state GDP: -$18.0B
Pennsylvania’s $18 billion loss is the ninth-largest dollar loss in the country. But, with a $750 billion economy, that loss represents only 2.5 percent of GDP.
Rhode Island
Change to state GDP: $0.2B
That’s not a typo: Rhode Island’s GDP is expected to grow by $200 million as a result of climate change. That boost represents 0.3 percent of the state’s GDP.
South Carolina
Change to state GDP: -$15.2B
South Carolina is expected to suffer the fifth-largest percentage hit to its GDP as a result of climate change. The 6.9 percent change translates to the 13th-largest dollar drop.
South Dakota
Change to state GDP: -0.3B
South Dakota’s GDP is expected to drop by just over half a percentage point from global warming. The $300 million decline is the sixth-smallest decline dollar-wise.
Tennessee
Change to state GDP: -$19.8B
Tennessee is expected to take an almost $20 billion hit from climate change. That amounts to 5.7 percent of the state’s GDP, the 10th-largest percentage drop.
Texas
Change to state GDP: -$100.7B
Texas is the only state besides Florida projected to see its GDP decline by more than $100 billion. When taken as a percentage, the 5.9 percent drop is only ninth-largest.
Utah
Change to state GDP: -$3.7B
Utah expects to take a hit of over $3.7 billion due to climate change. That corresponds to a 2.2 percent decline in GDP, ranking as the 27th-largest decline.
Vermont
Change to state GDP: $0.5B
Vermont expects it’s GDP to grow by over $500 million due to global warming. That growth translates to a 1.6 percent increase, which is the largest increase in the country.
Virginia
Change to state GDP: -$9.7B
Virginia’s almost $10 billion anticipated drop is the 18th largest. But, with the 13th-largest economy, that projected drop accounts for just 1.9 percent of the state’s GDP.
Washington
Change to state GDP: -$9.1B
Washington is right behind Virginia in both dollar losses and percentage losses due to climate change. Its 1.8 percent projected loss ranks it 31st nationally.
West Virginia
Change to state GDP: -$2.1B
West Virginia is expected to lose a little more than $2 billion from its GDP, but the state has the 11th-smallest GDP to start with, so only 2.7 percent of the state’s GDP disappears from climate change.
Wisconsin
Change to state GDP: $0.3B
Wisconsin won’t gain much, but a $300 million growth is better than any loss. It’s the third-largest increase of any state from climate change.
Wyoming
Change to state GDP: $0.2B
Wyoming also expects an increase to GDP as a result of climate change. The $200 million plus growth is projected to add about 0.6 percent to the state’s GDP.
How Will Your State Be Impacted by Climate Change?
Among all of the states, there are only five that will experience an increase to the GDP, according to GOBankingRates’ methodology: Wyoming, Wisconsin, Vermont, Rhode Island and Massachusetts.
The study upon which this article is based on found that the South and lower Midwest regions will be the most economically impacted by climate change through the end of the century. However, colder regions are not expected to experience a negative economic effect. This could be because as the climate gets warmer, crops could potentially respond better.
More From GOBankingRates
Methodology: This article is based on a 2017 study (“Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States”) published in the journal Science and featured on Governing.com. The study identified the total estimated damages as they relate to the GDP in counties across America. To find out the economic impact of climate change on a state level, GOBankingRates calculated the average of the total estimated damages of the three largest counties in each state.
Last updated July 25, 2019.
This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: The Cost of Climate Change in Every State
