Results: Progyny, Inc. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates
As you might know, Progyny, Inc. (NASDAQ:PGNY) just kicked off its latest quarterly results with some very strong numbers. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 6.9% to hit US$99m. Progyny also reported a statutory profit of US$0.05, which was an impressive 26% above what the analysts had forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Progyny after the latest results.
View our latest analysis for Progyny
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Progyny from five analysts is for revenues of US$537.0m in 2021 which, if met, would be a sizeable 73% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 808% to US$0.36. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$539.7m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.40 in 2021. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$35.67, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Progyny at US$50.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$30.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Progyny's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 73% growth ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 53% per annum over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.9% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Progyny is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - and our data suggests that revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$35.67, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Progyny analysts - going out to 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here.
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Progyny , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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