Vaccitech plc Beat Analyst Profit Forecasts, And Analysts Have New Estimates
Last week, you might have seen that Vaccitech plc (NASDAQ:VACC) released its second-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.1% to US$4.63 in the past week. In addition to smashing expectations with revenues of US$17m, Vaccitech delivered a surprise statutory profit of US$0.41 per share, a notable improvement compared to analyst expectations of a loss. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Check out our latest analysis for Vaccitech
Following the latest results, Vaccitech's four analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$26.1m in 2022. This would be a huge 73% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to hold steady at around US$0.90. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$26.1m and losses of US$0.90 per share in 2022.
As a result, it's unexpected to see that the consensus price target fell 5.9% to US$20.00, with the analysts seemingly becoming more concerned about ongoing losses, despite making no major changes to their forecasts. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Vaccitech at US$23.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$16.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Vaccitech'shistorical trends, as the 199% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2022 is roughly in line with the 248% annual revenue growth over the past year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 15% per year. So it's pretty clear that Vaccitech is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Vaccitech's future valuation.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Vaccitech going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..
It is also worth noting that we have found 4 warning signs for Vaccitech (2 are concerning!) that you need to take into consideration.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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