We continue to monitor market breadth carefully, as longer-term measures remain supportive of higher stock prices and intermediate-term breadth has improved back to bullish.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

What happened to the September sell-off? A month ago, the S&P 500 was in the process of falling off all-time highs set early in September. From the ATH of 4,537 on 9/2/21, the "500" fell to the 4,350s on 9/21/21; staged what would be a failed rally to just under 4,450 on 9/24/21; and then made twin lows right around 4,300 on 9/30/21 and 10/4/21.

The stock market moved higher last week as earnings season picked up steam. Tech stocks outperformed blue chips, though the margin of outperformance was slim owing to disappointing earnings from some tech names. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 74 points, or 0.21%. The S&P 500 was down 0.11%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.82%. For the week, the DJIA was up 382 points, or 1.08%, the S&P 500 was up 1.64%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 1.29%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 16.57%, the S&P 500 is up 21.00%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 17.08%.

This edition features a framework for measuring human capital risk; Asia reporting; inflation and supply chain issues in upcoming earnings; and notes from Verizon, VMware, and new coverage EML Payments.

The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles to a large degree - have moved overseas, where costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy, even during the pandemic, has expanded to record levels. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, the domestic economy would not be growing and capital would not be flooding into the country. Consider that U.S. GDP was approximately $1 trillion in 1930 but nearly $23 trillion at the end of 1H21. That's growth of 23-times. Meanwhile, the U.S. population has grown less than three-times during that time span, to 320 million from 120 million. The delta between GDP growth and population growth has been driven, in large part, by innovation. In addition, the value of listed corporations on U.S. stock exchanges at the end of 2020 was approximately $41 trillion, according to SIFMA, representing 38% of global equity market capitalization, while U.S. GDP represented only 26% of global GDP. The current low level of interest rates and the relatively high level of the dollar both attest to the confidence that global investors have in the innovative U.S. economy.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday morning following earnings reports from IBM, Tesla, and Blackstone, and new employment data. IBM shares fell more than 7% after the company posted weaker-than-expected third-quarter revenue, while Tesla rose 3% after strong 3Q earnings, driven by record vehicle deliveries. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 290,000 for the week ended October 16, down from 296,000 a week earlier and below the consensus forecast of 297,000. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P was flat, and the Nasdaq rose 0.4%. Crude oil fell more than 1% to $82 per barrel, while gold traded near $1781 per ounce.

This edition features the continuing shift to software; biopharma capital allocation; rising ransomware attacks; and new coverage of Stem, Keysight, and Carlyle Group.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are DuPont de Nemours Inc (DD); Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT); Twilio Inc (TWLO); Corning, Inc. (GLW) and the Focus List deletions are LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB); American Electric Power Co Inc (AEP); International Business Machine (IBM); T-Mobile US Inc (TMUS); Restaurant Brands Intl In (QSR).

Stocks rose on Thursday in a broad-based rally as investors are more optimistic about the possibility of a debt ceiling resolution. The Dow is 2% away from its all-time high. The Labor Department reported that initial unemployment claims for the week ended October 2 were 326,000, compared to an expected 348,000 and an upwardly revised 364,000 during prior week. Continuing claims for the week ended September 25 were 2.7 million, less than the 2.8 million expected. The Dow rose 1%, the S&P 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 1.1%. Crude oil rose to near $79 per barrel, while gold fell almost $6 to $1756 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks rose on Thursday morning on lessening fears concerning the debt ceiling. Lawmakers have reached a deal to extend the debt limit through the beginning of December. The Labor Department reported that initial unemployment claims for the week ended October 2 were 326,000 vs. 348,000 expected and an upwardly revised 364,000 during prior week. Continuing claims for the week ended September 25 were 2.7 million, less than the 2.8 million expected. The Dow rose 1.5%, the S&P 1.5%, and the Nasdaq 1.7%. Crude oil traded near $78 per barrel, while gold traded near $1758 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Due to a difficult September, in which the S&P 500 fell 4.7%, 3Q21 was barely positive for stocks, with the major benchmark index increasing only 0.6%. The average stock in the Argus Universe of Coverage fell 1.7% during the quarter, and the median stock dropped 1.4%. The average BUY-rated stock slipped 0.9%, while the average HOLD-rated stock declined 3.7%. Will investors continue to favor value in 2021? Will small-caps reverse their recent weak trend? Given low interest rates, we expect growth stocks to resume their outperformance over time, and think this may be the one-in-five years that value leads. Investors seeking value are encouraged to focus on dividends and look for yields in the 3%-4% range. As for small-caps, the promise of the vaccine is encouraging for these companies, which typically don't have the gilt-edged balance sheets of large-caps and are thus more dependent on a strong U.S. economy. Small-cap valuations remain depressed, and this group looks to offer value into 2022.

September more than lived up to its fearsome reputation, with a nearly 5% decline for the S&P 500. The Nasdaq suffered a worse decline as growth equities were slammed by rising rates and rekindled inflation fears.