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  • JPMorgan Sees S&P at 3,900 If Trump Wins Election: Taking Stock
    Business
    Bloomberg

    JPMorgan Sees S&P at 3,900 If Trump Wins Election: Taking Stock

    (Bloomberg) -- With the final stretch of the election upon us, it’s still nearly impossible to guess how the stock market will react to next week’s vote. One estimate from JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s chief equity strategist puts U.S. stocks in for a double-digit advance if Donald Trump keeps his office.A victory for the Republican candidate could push the S&P 500 to as high as 3,900 at year-end under the most optimistic case laid out by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, the bank’s chief U.S. equity strategist. The figure, some 300 points above his base-case target for year-end, implies a 12.5% advance from the gauge’s Friday close. While a number of traders have come to consider a Democratic sweep followed by a prompt fiscal deal among bullish scenarios for the equity market, Lakos-Bujas disagrees, seeing Trump’s victory as the most favorable outcome.“A ‘Blue Sweep’ scenario is expected to be mostly neutral in the short term,” JPMorgan’s strategists including Lakos-Bujas said in a report dated Friday. “It would likely be accompanied by some immediate positive catalysts (i.e. larger fiscal stimulus/infrastructure) but also negative catalysts (i.e. rising corporate taxes).”With days left until the election, traders are shrugging off the risk of a contested election -- at least judging by a flattening volatility curve -- corresponding with polls showing a widening lead for Joe Biden over the past month. Near-term uncertainty has remained elevated, with the Cboe Volatility Index stuck near a 30 level for weeks now, likely reflecting concern that sectors of the economy and markets that the candidates have referenced the most could see some wild swings post-election.A quick look at the top constituents of a Biden and Trump baskets of stocks created by JPMorgan, which bet on potential winners from either Democrats or Republicans taking control of Washington, shows the stakes are sky-high. Alternative energy and green-tech stocks in the Biden basket, for instance, have outperformed traditional energy and fossil fuel companies, among the top winners from Trump’s victory, by 84 percentage points since June, data compiled by JPMorgan show.Earlier: Barclays Sees VIX Plunging to Pre-Covid Level in Clear Biden WinFutures on the S&P 500 Index are trading 1% lower following losses in Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index and a dip in the Shanghai Composite Index on the first day Communist Party’s four-day meeting. News over the weekend confirmed a rising number of infections on both sides of the Atlantic, pushing Treasuries and the dollar higher as investors rushed into havens. Futures on the Nasdaq 100 Index are 0.9% lower after Europe’s application software giant SAP SE dropped as much as 21% after cutting its revenue forecast for the full year.Notes From the Sell Side:Apollo Global Management was upgraded to outperform at Evercore ISI, which wrote that recent share-price weakness related to Leon Black’s relationship with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein was overdone. Shares down 14% from a peak hit earlier this month, but “this issue will ultimately have limited business impact to the company,” wrote analyst Glenn Schorr. “Plenty of LPs might rightfully put pressure on APO now, but [will] ultimately continue to invest with them.” The firm added that when considering APO as a stock, “investors & LPs should eventually separate the man from the company,” as the company “had no business dealings with the bad guy.”Winnebago Industries was upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi, which wrote that motor homes should continue to see strong demand throughout the pandemic. “A return to extensive travel (planes, cruise, hotels) is several years away, while we believe that the attractiveness of the RV lifestyle is here to stay,” wrote analyst Shawn Collins. The firm added that it was “encouraged” by WGO’s ability to grow its market share.First Solar and SunPower were both downgraded at Credit Suisse, which cited valuation following recent gains. Shares of SunPower are up more than 440% from an April low, and the valuation “already implies strong Ebitda recovery through 2022,” while First Solar is “approaching peak multiples,” Credit Suisse wrote. The firm added that solar manufacturing “will be a cyclical industry with limited tailwinds,” whereas for residential solar, “any multiple expansion/shrinking will rather be driven by supply/demand mismatch.”Sectors in Focus:Dunkin’ Brands shares are up 18% premarket after the Dunkin’ Donuts and Baskin-Robbins parent company confirmed Sunday afternoon that it has held preliminary discussions to be acquired by Inspire Brands.Cenovus Energy on Sunday agreed to buy Husky Energy in a C$3.8 billion all-stock deal that will combine two of the largest players in Canada’s beleaguered oil-sands industry. Watch HSE CN, CVE CN and companies like SU CN, IMO CN for a move.China said it will impose unspecified sanctions on defense contractors Lockheed Martin, a unit of Boeing Co. and Raytheon Technologies after the U.S. approved an arms sale to Taiwan last week, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said Monday. Watch BA, LMT and RTX for a move.Watch KO after Barron’s says the beverage company is an under-appreciated post-pandemic reopening play.Your 64-Hour ICYMI:France set a record for new Covid cases, while Spain’s be Italy announced new restrictions. The U.S. reported record coronavirus infections for the second day in a row, adding 85,317 cases. U.S. Vice President Mike Pence’s chief of staff, Marc Short, and Marty Obst, a close adviser, tested positive for the virus.Alphabet, Facebook, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft will emerge from the pandemic stronger than ever, despite intensifying antitrust scrutiny in Congress, Barron’s writes in its latest issue. “60 Minutes” finally aired the interview that Donald Trump cut short on Sunday night. Samsung’s billionaire chairman Lee Kun-hee, who made the South Korean company a global powerhouse, has died at 78. A San Francisco judge refused to pause her September order blocking Trump’s ban on Tencent Holdings Ltd.’s WeChat.Carlyle Group is nearing an agreement to acquire Siemens AG’s Flender mechanical drive unit for about $2.4 billion, according to people familiar. Airbnb is splitting its privately held shares ahead of a planned initial public offering, according to an internal email.The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday night to be just one win away from their first World Series title since 1988. UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov announces emotional retirement after latest victory, saying he doesn’t want to keep fighting again following the death of his father, who served as his coach, from the coronavirus.Tick-By-Tick to Today’s Actionable Events:6:30am-- HAS earnings8:30am-- Sept. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index10am-- Sept. New Home Sales10:30am-- Oct. Dallas Fed Mfg Activity10:30am-- JCAP vote11am-- USDA weekly corn, soybean, wheat export inspections4:05pm-- FFIV, TBI earnings4:15pm-- TWLO earnings8pm-- NXPI earningsQuiet period expires: AVO, LUNG, YALA, OPRH, CD, BQPRCP/ATLKY - Prelim proxy filing deadlineFirst day of China’s Oct. 26 - Oct. 29 plenumFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

  • IRS Boosts 2021 Income Limits For IRA Deductions
    Business
    Investor's Business Daily

    IRS Boosts 2021 Income Limits For IRA Deductions

    There's still time to benefit from 2020's IRA contribution limits. And odds are that you haven't put in the maximum allowed yet.

  • US Did Not Benefit From Trade War With China: WSJ
    Politics
    Benzinga

    US Did Not Benefit From Trade War With China: WSJ

    President Donald Trump's trade war with China did not achieve the objective of boosting manufacturing in the U.S., the Wall Street Jornal reports.What Happened: Manufacturing activity in the U.S. has not reversed despite billions of dollars in tariffs to discourage importing Chinese manufactured goods.The trade deficit with China reduced in 2019. Still, the overall trade balance has soared to a record $84 billion in August as U.S. importers shifted to imports from Vietnam, Mexico, and other countries. Since the pandemic, China's trade deficit is back to where it was at the start of the Trump administration.The goal of reshoring factory production to the U.S. is unfulfilled as job growth in manufacturing slowed since July 2018, while the manufacturing activity peaked in December 2018.Why It Matters: Trump's trade advisers say that the tariffs of $370 billion on Chinese goods have succeeded in forcing China to agree to phase one trade deal in January and will end China's unfair practices over time. Industry analysis by the Federal Reserve shows that tariffs helped boost employment by 0.3% by protecting domestic industries exposed to cheaper Chinese imports.Those gains were more than offset by higher costs of Chinese imports due to tariffs, cutting manufacturing employment by 1.1% in the U.S. The retaliatory tariffs by China on the U.S. exports reduced domestic factory jobs by 0.7%.According to Peterson Institute for International Economics trade expert Chad Bown, President Trump is not the first to use tariffs to protect industries, but this is the biggest use of tariffs since the Great Depression.Image Courtesy: WikimediaSee more from Benzinga * Click here for options trades from Benzinga * European Markets Today: Indices Plunge On Fears Of New COVID-19 Restrictions Hurting Economy * AstraZeneca COVID-19 Vaccine Data Shows Promising Signs In Older Age Group: FT(C) 2020 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

  • 3 Big Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 7%; JMP Says ‘Buy’
    Business
    TipRanks

    3 Big Dividend Stocks Yielding Over 7%; JMP Says ‘Buy’

    With markets showing volatile movements in recent sessions – down one day, up the next – some of Wall Street’s analysts are showing a renewed interest in high-yield dividends. Not that they have ever shied away from these steady income generators; rather, the market boom of this past summer led the Street to focus on share appreciation as the source of profits. Market fluctuations since early September have analysts and investors both taking a closer look at defensive plays.The research analysts at JMP Securities have been searching the markets for the ‘right’ buys, and their picks bear a closer look. They’ve been tapping reliable, high-yielding dividend payers as an investment play of choice. The TipRanks database sheds some additional light on three of JMP’s picks – stocks with dividends yielding 7% or better – and that the investment firm sees with 20% upside or better. Annaly Capital Management (NLY)The first name on the list from JMP is Annaly Capital Management. The company inhabits the mortgage-backed security niche, with $104 billion in total assets, primarily mortgage securities backed by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Annaly is one of the market’s largest REITs.The corona crisis was hard on Annaly, as the economic crush of the first quarter made it difficult for loan holders to make payments. As the economy bounced back in Q2, however, Annaly’s fortunes reversed and the steep losses from Q1 turned into modest gains. Q2 revenues came in at $979 million, with EPS, at 27 cents, beating the 23-cent forecast. Looking ahead, the forecast is a 26-cent EPS for Q3. It’s important to note that Annaly has beaten the earnings forecast in each of the past three quarters.Turning to the dividend, Annaly has remained a reliable dividend payer over the past several years, with a history of adjusting the payment to keep it sustainable. The current dividend is 22 cents per common share, and was paid out at the end of September; at that rate, the yield is 12.27%. In an era of near-zero rates from the Fed, NLY’s dividend return is sky-high.JMP analyst Steven DeLaney is impressed with NLY. The 5-star analyst pointed out, “The combination of dividends paid during the [second] quarter and the sterling book value gain—the company’s best quarterly gain since the Great Recession of 2008-09 [...] We believe NLY shares should trade at a meaningful premium to peers based on the company’s size, scale, and, now, its internal management structure."DeLaney rates the stock an Outperform (i.e. Buy) along with an $8.50 price target. This figure suggests a 20% upside potential from current levels. (To watch DeLaney’s track record, click here)Overall, there have been 8 recent analyst reviews of NLY shares, breaking down to 5 Buys and 3 Holds, giving the stock an analyst consensus rating of Moderate Buy. The $8.04 average price target implies a 13% growth potential from the current trading price of $7.10. (See NLY stock analysis on TipRanks)StoneCastle Financial (BANX)Next up, StoneCastle, is a management investment company, with a portfolio that includes moves into alternative capital securities and community banks. The company focuses its investment activity on capital preservation and current income generation, committing to returning profits to shareholders. StoneCastle’s investment portfolio totals over $133 million, of which 32% is credit securitization, 26% is debt securities, and 15% is term loans.During the second quarter, BANX saw over $2.6 million in net investment income, coming out to 41 cents per share. The company’s net asset value rose to $20.27 per share at the close of the quarter; that figure was $20.93 by September 30.BANX paid out a 38-cent quarterly dividend in Q2, a payment which the company has held up reliably – with one blip upwards in December 2018 – for the past three years. At $1.52 annually, the dividend yields an impressive 8%.5-star analyst Devin Ryan covers this stock for JMP, and he likes what he sees. “The company invested a healthy $36M during the [second] quarter, which included some higher yielding and more attractive securities, which drove the sequential increase in net investment income… Given a strong quarter of investing, particularly into attractive yielding securities, net investment income stepped up solidly in 2Q20. Moving forward, given the strong 2H20 outlook for deployment, we believe it is likely that net investment income will continue to move higher… BANX continues to more than cover its current quarterly dividend of $0.38, and we believe this will continue to be the case in the coming quarters,” Ryan opined. Ryan’s is the only recent review on record for this stock, which is currently selling for $18.15. He rates BANX an Outperform (i.e. Buy), with a $22 price target that indicates a possible 21% upside for the next 12 months. (To watch Ryan’s track record, click here)BRT Realty Trust (BRT)Last but not least is BRT Realty Trust, a real estate investment trust focused on multifamily properties. The company acquires, owns, and manages apartment dwellings, and currently boasts a portfolio of 39 properties across 11 states, totaling over 11,000 individual apartments. The company has felt a serious hurt from the ongoing corona crisis, and reported a net loss of 25 cents per share for the calendar second quarter this year. At the same time, BRT did manage to collect 98% of rents in Q2, and saw average occupancy remain above 93%. This bodes well for the company, as it does not have to carry and maintain empty or non-paying units.Also on a positive note, BRT kept up its dividend payment. The company has been gradually raising the quarterly payout for the past three years, and the current dividend, of 22 cents per common share, annualizes to 88 cents and gives a yield of 7.1%. This is more than triple the average yield found among S&P-listed companies, and more than double BRT’s dividend-paying peers in the financial sector.JMP’s Aaron Hecht sees BRT holding a solid position in its niche, writing, “With a lower price point product spread across Sunbelt markets, the BRT portfolio is generating strong results compared to peers with high-density urban market exposure... Rent growth averaged 2.2% for renewals and 0.2% for new leases, while minimal concessions were given. Rate growth and occupancy were similar in July and August 2020 compared with 2Q20.”Hecht rates the stock an Outperform (i.e. Buy), with a $15 price target that implies a one-year upside of 20%. (To watch Hecht’s track record, click here.)Overall, BRT has a Moderate Buy rating from the analyst consensus, based on an even split between Buy and Hold reviews. The stock is selling for $12.56, and the average price target of $13.25 suggests a modest gain of 5%. (See BRT stock analysis on TipRanks)To find good ideas for dividend stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.