|Day's Range||2,834.97 - 2,927.01|
|52 Week Range||2,346.58 - 3,027.98|
Another wild week in the markets sent the Dow more than 600 points lower last Friday alone, as investors considered the latest escalations in the U.S.-China trade war. Against this back-drop, this week is poised to be another busy one for markets.
As President Donald Trump pushes the Fed to weaponize its monetary policy against other countries, central bankers in Jackson Hole this week called for more coordination.
Futures dive: The stock market rally and Fed rate cuts are no match for President Trump's escalating China trade war. Watch Apple, Boeing, Tesla, Micron and Nike.
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. equity futures tumbled while the yen and Treasury contracts climbed after the latest escalation in the Sino-American trade war. The yuan weakened and stocks looked headed for steep losses in Asia.Futures were more than 2% lower in Tokyo and Hong Kong. S&P 500 contracts fell more than 1% after sliding Friday, when President Donald Trump announced additional levies on Chinese imports and called for American companies to pull out of Asia’s largest economy after China said it would impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods. Trump acknowledged having second thoughts on escalating the trade war, only for aides to clarify he meant he regretted not raising tariffs even more. The yen touched a three-year high against the greenback, while the Aussie and kiwi slumped.The latest turn in the trade war comes during an already tumultuous August for financial markets amid concerns of slowing global economic growth. On Friday, Trump bumped existing tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% from 25% and planned duties to 15% from 10%. That followed retaliatory levies from China, which indicated it will follow through with tariffs on $75 billion of U.S. goods it announced Friday and fight the trade war to the end, according to an editorial in the state-run People’s Daily.“We view risks of further escalation as meaningful,” Chetan Ahya, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a report Sunday. “If the U.S. raises tariffs on all imports from China to 25% and China makes a matching response with these measures staying in place for 4-6 months, we believe that the global economy will be in recession in 6-9 months.”Meanwhile, Hong Kong assets will continue to be in focus after police made at least 29 arrests as violence returned after the prior week’s peaceful rallies. Xinhua published a commentary saying the situation has become a “color revolution” and Beijing has a responsibility to intervene.Elsewhere, oil extended losses from Friday, when China announced tariffs on U.S. oil for the first time. Gold climbed and emerging market currencies such as the Turkish lira retreated.Here are the main moves in markets:StocksFutures on the S&P 500 retreated 1.1% as of 8:12 a.m. in Tokyo. The underlying index sank 2.6% on Friday.Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 2.6%.Hang Seng Index futures declined 2.4%.Futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 1.3%.CurrenciesThe yen rose 0.4% to 104.96 per dollar.The offshore yuan dropped 0.6% to 7.1747 per dollar.The euro gained 0.1% to $1.1152.The Aussie fell 0.9% to 67 U.S. cents.BondsFutures on 10-year Treasuries advanced about 0.4%. The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell seven basis points to 1.54% on Friday.Australia’s 10-year yield fell nine basis points to 0.86%.CommoditiesWest Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.9% to $53.16 a barrel.Gold rose 1.2% to $1,545.80 an ounce.To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Haigh in Sydney at firstname.lastname@example.orgTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Christopher Anstey at email@example.com, Andreea PapucFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- Equity futures tumbled as trading resumed Sunday, with investors struggling with the increasingly complex task of assessing the impact of a trade war on the economy and corporate profits.September contracts on the S&P 500 fell 1.2% as of 6:53 p.m. in New York, while futures on the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.5%. The swings followed a sell-off on Friday that sent benchmark gauges to their third 2%-plus plunge of August, now likely to be the second down month for equities of 2019.Shares are being swayed by events from before and during the weekend. Stocks plunged Friday after Trump warned of an unspecified response to China’s plan to slap new tariffs on $75 billion of U.S. goods. After markets closed, he said he’d hike existing tariffs, applied to about $250 billion in Chinese goods, to 30% from 25% as of Oct. 1. He also said a new round on $300 billion in goods will be taxed at 15%, up from 10%.“This is sort of the norm, in terms of what’s going on, a lot of the market activity has been geopolitically driven and the president escalating the trade war,” David Katz, chief investment officer at Matrix Asset Advisors in Westchester, New York. “But that’s unfortunately something investors are coming to live with. There’s nothing much one can do preemptively either way.”The U.S.-China back-and-forth blotted out comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who said the U.S. economy is in a favorable place but faces “significant risks,” reinforcing bets for another interest-rate cut.Moves in futures follow four straight down weeks that pushed the S&P 500 almost 6 percent below its record high set July 26. Volatility has surged in August, with more than half its sessions seeing swings of 1% or more, though U.S. shares still more than 20% above levels at the end of December.“There are a lot of investors or players who are away, and it’s easy to get this type of volatility because of that fact,” Walter “Bucky” Hellwig, a senior vice president at BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama, said by phone. “‘But it’s very disappointing to see the sell-off so dramatic at the start.”The S&P 500, which closed Friday at 2,847.11, has twice bounced back from violent drops in August. When the index fell to 2,844 in the month’s first few days, bulls sent the gauge 3.3% higher over the next three days. A virtually identical rally occurred again a week later when stocks fell to 2,840.Swings like those have frustrated anyone trying to chart a coherent course in the market. Reasons for anxiety are piling up. Yields on government bonds are sending grim signals about the economic future, with the 10-year Treasury yield hovering near 1.5%, while estimates for corporate profits have sagged. On Sunday, two top aides said Trump has the authority to force American companies to leave China, as he threatened on Twitter, yet whether he invokes those powers is another question.“For these events to unfold on the eve of one of the slowest trading weeks of the year creates market crash potential,” said Michael O’Rourke, JonesTrading’s chief market strategist. “Crowded complacent longs combined with illiquid trading, expensive valuations, narrow leadership, slowing earnings and an unparalleled peacetime policy uncertainty place markets in a dangerous position.”The sell-off has pushed the S&P 500 below a level that matches its high-water mark from January 2018, meaning people who bought back then, during the biggest rally of Trump’s presidency, remain stuck. Of greater interest to chart analysts, the index now sits just 7 points above lows set during earlier August plunges.Dip buyers stepped in when the S&P neared 2,840 twice before, fueled by optimism the economy is strong and the trade war resolvable. Whether they’ll be as confident after Trump tweeted that the U.S. would be “better off without“ China is an open question -- and they weren’t on Sunday.“Given the global slowdown has already taken hold and bordering on potential of a recession, this additional uncertainty is unwelcome to say the least,” said Nathan Thooft, Manulife Asset Management’s head of global asset allocation. “The reaction doesn’t surprise me. Investors are reacting to a legit escalation. With that said, there are offsets. Clearly this is even clearer evidence for the need for more monetary and fiscal accommodation.”Chart analysts are watching 2,820, twice an intraday low for the S&P 500 this month. If that’s breached, 2,800 becomes the line to watch, according to Frank Cappelleri, senior equity trader and market technician at Instinet LLC. It’s roughly the 200-day moving average that’s supported the gauge all year and also a spot where stocks peaked three times late last year.“It’s good that there are downside reference points that are clear to market technicians -- 2820, then 2800, June low, May low,” Cappelleri said by phone. “What’s not so great is all the uncertainty along the way.”\--With assistance from Sarah Ponczek.To contact the reporters on this story: Vildana Hajric in New York at firstname.lastname@example.org;Elena Popina in New York at email@example.comTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeremy Herron at firstname.lastname@example.org, Chris Nagi, Courtney DentchFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
Asian shares seemed set for a turbulent start on Monday as the latest salvo in the U.S.-China trade war shook confidence in the world economy and sent investors steaming to the safe harbor of sovereign bonds and the Japanese yen. Wall Street nose-dived on Friday when President Donald Trump announced a 5% additional duty on $550 billion in targeted Chinese goods, hours after China unveiled retaliatory tariffs on $75 billion worth of U.S. products. At the G7 meeting in France over the weekend, Trump caused some confusion by indicating he may have had second thoughts on the tariffs.
U.S. stock markets futures sharply dropped in early trading Sunday, following comments by President Donald Trump on Friday that escalated trade-war tensions. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell more than 300 points, or more than 1%, and S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq Composite futures were down by more than 1% each. On Friday, Trump said he would raise tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods to 30% from 25% starting Oct. 1, and hike tariffs on another $300 billion in Chinese imports to 15% from 10%, in two stages, on Sept. 1 and Dec. 15. Trump said Sunday at the G-7 summit in France that he had some regrets about hiking the tariffs, which the White House later clarified as meaning he regrets he didn't raise them higher.
Tech and semiconductor stocks have significant exposure to China during this trade war. Investors should expect these stocks to trade lower on Monday.
Given China’s retaliatory tariffs on Trump’s August 1 tariffs and the gold market’s reaction, we have to expect China to hit the U.S. with a countermeasure that could send gold prices even higher.
There may be little relief on the horizon for investors in U.S. energy companies, whose shares moved from darlings to dismal performers during Wall Street's record bull run and now face a shaky global economy, doubts about fossil fuel investments and general market skepticism. Energy has been the worst performing of the 11 S&P 500 sectors this year, the worst performer since U.S. President Donald Trump's 2016 election and the worst performer since the U.S. bull stock market began more than a decade ago. As a result, the S&P 500 energy sector has its lowest weight in the overall S&P 500 since at least 1995, according to Refinitiv Datastream data.
The University of Notre Dame’s investment office has “a long-term orientation to our investment partnerships and approach.” But the university made big changes in its U.S.-traded stock investments in the relatively short time frame of the second quarter.
Former Vice President Al Gore continues to beat the market at Generation Investment Management, the London-based firm that Gore co-founded and chairs.
The bond market sent a warning, and this time the stock market listened. Investors will be looking for clues in the week ahead that policy makers are listening, too.
Will the stock market’s real rate of return please stand up? Depending on your frame of reference, the U.S. stock market is either performing fantastically or dismally. For example, the dividend-adjusted S&P 500 (SPX) has an annualized real (inflation-adjusted) return of 26.5% this year through Aug. 19 — including a full percentage point increase on Monday of this week.
A friendship between President Donald Trump and one of his most vocal advocates has taken an almost-Shakespearean twist.
The world’s No. 1 cryptocurrency, bitcoin, has enjoyed a very loose relationship with other assets during its brief history, but that could be changing a recent chart shows.
Sounds like it’ll be raining jobs, growth and profit across the U.S. for the foreseeable future, if White House trade adviser Peter Navarro has it right. But, really, how long can it last and what happens when the easing stops?
If the past is prologue, then the situation that President Trump finds himself in—and our country finds itself in—increasingly resembles what we’ve seen before
This column is neither for nor against President Trump. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) would have been 10,000 points higher if President Trump had not done the “right” thing. The answer to this question helps investors understand what may happen to the stock market if the trade war with China is resolved.