Stocks fell on Friday morning as a long-awaited fiscal stimulus package remained elusive despite signs that Democrats and Republicans were moving closer to an agreement. Congress is instead likely to first pass another stopgap spending bill that will keep the government running past midnight, while also providing time for additional stimulus negotiations. The package under discussion reportedly includes one-time payments of $600 to most Americans, extended unemployment benefits, help for states in vaccine distribution, and aid for small businesses. The Dow fell 0.6%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil traded near $49 per barrel, while gold rose $1 to $1892 per ounce.

The Technology sector has led the market recovery from the COVID-19 depths of March 2020. Through November 20, the sector was up 31% for the year, compared to a 10% gain for the S&P 500. The Tech sector is the largest in the U.S. market and now accounts for more than 27% of the S&P 500. Over the long term, we expect the Tech sector to benefit from pervasive digitization across the economy, greater acceptance of transformative technologies, and the development of the Internet of Things (IoT): Healthy company and sector fundamentals are also positive. For individual companies, these include high cash levels, low debt, and broad international business exposure. We have an Over-Weight ranking on the Tech sector and think investors should look to allocate up to 30% of their diversified portfolios to the group. Here is how we use our Tech sector ideas from our analysts in our Focus List and Model Portfolios.

Stocks rebounded on Friday, finishing off a week that saw the major indexes close mixed. Technology stocks performed better than blue chips, breaking a three-week string of FAANG sell-offs. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 359 points, or 1.3%. The S&P 500 increased 1.6% and the Nasdaq Composite increased 2.3% on the day. For the full week, the Dow was down 1.8%, the S&P 500 was down 0.6%, and the Nasdaq was up 1.1%. With last week's drop in the S&P 500, the broader market has declined four weeks in a row. For the year-to-date, the DJIA is down 4.8%, the S&P is up 2.1%, and the Nasdaq is up 21.6%. Over the past 52 weeks, the Dow is up 1.3%, the S&P 500 is up 11.4%, and the Nasdaq is up 37.5%.

The Labor Department's nonfarm payrolls report for June 2020 will be released on Thursday, July 2. Last month's new jobs total was a pleasant surprise at 2.5 million and in stark contrast to the results in March and April (when the economy shed 22.1 million jobs). But don't be fooled into thinking that a strong turnaround in the employment environment has started. Even though states are starting to reopen their economies, unemployment claims remain above 1 million per week and continuing claims are just below 20 million. That's out of a total workforce of 156 million. As well, certain states and companies are starting to slow the re-opening process and companies are even shuttering some operations/locations as cases of COVID-19 increase. Before we see the unemployment rate start trending down consistently, the country needs to recover its health. That requires better testing programs for COVID-19, treatments for the disease and ultimately a vaccine. We expect widespread testing later this summer, a treatment in the fall and a vaccine in the first half of next year.

Stocks rose in late trading on Thursday, led by the Financial sector, after U.S. regulators eased a range of investment restrictions on Wall Street banks. The late-day rally followed a choppy session dominated by reports of rising coronavirus cases in 29 states and another week of heavy job losses. Responding to the sharp increase in new cases, Texas Governor Greg Abbott said that the state would suspend elective surgical procedures and pause its reopening plan. Meanwhile, 1.48 million Americans filed first-time unemployment benefit claims in the week ended June 20, down from 1.54 million a week earlier but well above the consensus forecast. Continuing claims, reported with a one-week lag, fell to 19.52 million from 20.29 million a week earlier. The Dow rose 1.18%, the S&P 1.10%, and the Nasdaq 1.09%. Crude oil rose 2.5% to $39 per barrel, while gold fell slightly to $1773 per ounce.