As stocks keep trending higher, insiders continue to exercise restraint. Based on six months of transaction data, the Insider Index from Vickers Stock Research has fallen deeper into bearish territory, dropping to its most-bearish level since mid-December 2021. Insider sentiment as indicated by Vickers' one- and eight-week barometers has stabilized at moderately bearish, suggesting insiders do not see many 'bargains' in possibly overbought shares. Insider-sentiment data from the Nasdaq remains the largest contributor to overall bearish sentiment, with Vickers' Nasdaq One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio now at 5.08 and the eight-week reading at 6.37, all on a scale where anything above 2.50 is bearish. The NYSE One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio is 3.59, while the eight-week reading is 4.54. Perhaps a reset by way of a sell-off would bring insiders back into the long-term game in meaningful fashion.

Stocks are little-changed on Monday morning. While this week is full of major earnings report, Fed news, and significant economic data, investors appear to be in 'wait and see' mode for now -- with the biggest events still to come on Tuesday (earnings), Wednesday (Fed), Thursday (earnings again), and Friday (employment). Tension in the Middle East is also on the rise, likely adding to hesitation on the part of traders. As of this writing, the major stock indices are in a tight range between off 0.04% and up 0.30%. Crude oil is lower by about 1.15%, while gold is up about 0.35%.

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday morning amid continued concerns about rising Treasury yields and 'higher for longer' interest rates. Investors also weighed the ouster of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, which raised prospects for another potential government shutdown next month. Employment data was lower than expected. Payroll provider ADP said that U.S. companies added 89,000 payroll jobs in September, down from 180,000 in August and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 153,000. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.4%. Crude oil fell more than 3% to $86 per barrel, while gold fell $9 to $1833 per ounce.

Our analysis of recent data indicates that key parts of U.S. GDP are still expanding, despite the impact of higher interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical developments. That said, growth is not consistent across all segments of the economy, and, in many cases, growth rates are slowing. The risk of recession is real – but a U.S. recession is not a foregone conclusion. We look for uneven growth in 2023, with the high possibility of a negative quarter or two, similar to 2022. After reviewing the latest economic fundamentals, as well as the positive surprise in the final revision to 1Q GDP, we are trimming our 2Q23 GDP growth estimate to 2.3%. We still believe that 2Q could be the strongest quarter of the year before higher rates dampen consumer spending in the second half. Our full-year estimate for 2023 is now 1.5%. Our 2024 forecast remains 2.0% as the Federal Reserve, with its tool chest once again full after rate hikes, can contemplate lowering interest rates to recharge economic growth. Our estimates are generally in the range of other forecasters, though perhaps a bit higher than the consensus. The Wall Street Journal Economic Survey calls for GDP growth of 0.5% in 2023 and 1.6% in 2024. The Federal Reserve projects GDP growth of 1.0% in 2023 and 1.1% in 2024. Meanwhile, the IMF calls for 2023 growth of 1.6%, and the Philadelphia Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters looks for growth of 1.3% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024. The GDPNow Forecast from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is 1.9% for 2Q23.

U.S. equities were up following the lower-than-expected inflation data. The U.S. PCE declined sequentially in May to 0.1% and at an annualized rate of 3.8%. The Core PCE price index was up 0.3% for the month and 4.6% year-over-year in May, dipping from 4.7% in April. The decline in inflation is ongoing, but has slowed. Spending rose 0.1% for the month, below the 0.2% estimate and down from the 0.6% increase in April. Personal income rose 0.4%, ahead of the 0.3% estimate. The Dow rose 0.6%, the S&P 500 1.0%, and the Nasdaq 1.4%. Crude oil rose to just above $70 per barrel while gold traded near $1923 per ounce.

Stocks rose again on Thursday morning, extending Wednesday's rally. New GDP data was largely in line with expectations. The Commerce Department, in its third estimate, said that the U.S. economy expanded at a 2.6% annualized rate in 4Q, down slightly from its prior estimate of 2.7% and the consensus of 2.7%. First-time unemployment benefit claims rose by 7,000 to 198,000 for the week ended March 25, slightly above the consensus forecast of 196,000. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 0.9%. Crude oil rose to $73 per barrel, while gold rose slightly to $1988 per ounce.

Stocks rose strongly on Thursday as investors weighed more 4Q earnings reports and new GDP and employment data. The Commerce Department said that the U.S. economy expanded at a 2.9% rate in 4Q, helped by significant growth in inventories. The reading was above the consensus estimate of 2.6% growth, though down from 3.2% in the third quarter. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 6,000 to 186,000 for the week ended January 14. The Dow rose 0.61%, the S&P 1.10%, and the Nasdaq 1.76%. Crude oil traded near $81 per barrel, while gold fell to $1930 per ounce.

Stocks once again fell on Friday morning. The jobs report showed the economy added 263,000 jobs last month, surpassing estimates for 255,000 to be added. Additionally, the unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, while analysts had projected it to stay flat at 3.7%. The Dow fell 1.7%, the S&P 2.2%, and the Nasdaq was down 3.0%. Crude oil traded above $92 per barrel, while gold fell $10 to $1711 per ounce.

Despite a strong showing from stocks on July 1, the first day of the third quarter, market breadth remains in the dumpster. We look at breadth in many ways and simply cannot find much to cheer about these days. Whether it's advance decline (AD) data, volume data, new lows versus new highs, or the percentage of stocks above their 200-day averages, the stock market remains weak from an internal standpoint.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks rose on Tuesday morning amid signs of progress in peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, with Russia reportedly offering to scale back military operations near Kyiv and elsewhere in northern Ukraine as a confidence-building measure. For its part, Ukraine has agreed to maintain neutral status but with appropriate international security guarantees. In the U.S., consumer confidence data was positive. The Conference Board said that its consumer confidence index rose to 107.2 in March, up from 105.7 in February and above the consensus forecast. The Dow rose 0.6%, the S&P 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 1.1%. Crude oil traded near $103 per barrel, while gold dropped $31 to $1909 per ounce.

Economy Keeps Chugging as Inflation Whittles away Confidence

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

September lived up to its reputation. The S&P 500 logged a 4.8% decline, but outperformed the Nasdaq -- which dropped by 5.3%. That aligns with insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research.

The onset of the coronavirus in 2020 knocked the stock market into a bear market. Though stocks have recovered, the U.S. economy is about to slow down and COVID-19 cases are rising again as virus variants spread. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Daily prices can swing wildly, as they did during two consecutive days in mid-July when the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted more than 1,000 points. Yet investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes. Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate and can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

Stocks were largely flat on Wednesday morning ahead of the release of the Fed's June meeting minutes, which could shed light on the central bank's timeline for reducing bond purchases. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that U.S. job openings rose by 16,000 to a new record high of 9.2 million on the last day of May; however, the reading missed the Reuters consensus forecast of 9.39 million. Hiring also slipped to 5.9 million jobs in May from 6.0 million in April. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.3%. Crude oil traded near $72 per barrel, while gold rose $10 to $1804 per ounce.

Just when anxiety over the market's direction started to intensify, the S&P 500 said, 'I got this,' and ended the 3/26/21 trading week at a new all-time closing high (ATH). Note that the closing price was less than a half-point above the prior ATH set on 3/17/21, which in market terms seems like a lifetime ago.

The stock market has been wracked by rising interest rates, escalating inflation fears, and sharp selling among last year's winning stocks. And for all that, the S&P 500 closed on 3/12/21 with a 5.3% quarter-to-date gain. If that holds, the index in 2021 will more than double its average 2.1% first-quarter gain since 1980. 'If it holds' is a big if, given that stocks staged selloffs in the final weeks of both January and February.

The onset of the coronavirus earlier this year knocked the stock market into a bear market. Though stocks have recovered, the U.S. economy is still in recession and COVID-19 cases are spiking as the weather turns colder and people head indoors. Volatility, which was low in early 2020 after a robust year for equities in 2019, has spiked higher, and has remained elevated. Is it time to cash in the chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes such as fixed income and cash. As well, those returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was not sub-1.0%. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point returns history, indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods. Stocks included in our Min Vol model portfolio and typically industry leaders and have received a high score from our A6 Quant Model on Financial Strength and a low score on Risk. Stocks in the portfolio include the following.

The Argus Research Universe of Analyst Coverage includes approximately 500 leading U.S. and international companies. We cover the waterfront -- from Technology to Utilities, from Energy to Healthcare. We generally follow the Top 200 most widely held stocks, which we source from our sister company Vickers Stock Research, which collects institutional ownership data from the U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission. From there, we look to identify the next 200-300 leading U.S. and international companies to add to our list. Our Universe of Coverage is dynamic and growing. We are continually adding stocks to coverage and often get great ideas from our clients. Here are five of our most-recent additions, all of which are rated BUY.

The Argus Research Universe of Analyst Coverage includes approximately 500 leading U.S. and international companies. We cover the waterfront -- from Technology to Utilities, from Energy to Healthcare. We generally follow the Top 200 most widely held stocks, which we source from our sister company Vickers Stock Research, which collects institutional ownership data from the U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission. From there, we look to identify the next 200-300 leading U.S. and international companies to add to our list. Our Universe of Coverage is dynamic and growing. We are continually adding stocks to coverage and often get great ideas from our clients. Here are five of our most-recent additions, all of which are rated BUY.

Stocks rose strongly on Wednesday morning as investors weighed the impact of Tuesday's presidential debate along with new economic data. The Commerce Department said that the U.S. economy contracted at a 31.4% rate in the second quarter, close to its previous estimate of 31.7%. On the employment front, payroll provider ADP said that U.S. companies created 749,000 jobs in September, up from 481,000 in August and above the Reuters consensus forecast of 650,000. Housing market data was also strong. The National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales in August rose 8.8% from July, above the consensus forecast of 3.1% growth, and jumped 24.2% from August 2019. The Dow rose 1.4%, the S&P 1.1%, and the Nasdaq 1.3%. Crude oil traded near $40 per barrel, while gold fell $5 to $1899 per ounce.

Stocks rose strongly on Wednesday morning as investors weighed the impact of Tuesday's presidential debate along with new economic data. The Commerce Department said that the U.S. economy contracted at a 31.4% rate in the second quarter, close to its previous estimate of 31.7%. On the employment front, payroll provider ADP said that U.S. companies created 749,000 jobs in September, up from 481,000 in August and above the Reuters consensus forecast of 650,000. Housing market data was also strong. The National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales in August rose 8.8% from July, above the consensus forecast of 3.1% growth, and jumped 24.2% from August 2019. The Dow rose 1.4%, the S&P 1.1%, and the Nasdaq 1.3%. Crude oil traded near $40 per barrel, while gold fell $5 to $1899 per ounce.

Stock Market Wobbles Toward the Election

Stock Market Wobbles Toward the Election