Biden beating Trump in Oxford Economics Analysis
Democratic presidential contender Joe Biden might not just beat Trump in November, but wallop him. Yahoo Finance's Rick Newman discusses.
Video Transcript
JULIE HYMAN: Let's turn to politics now. Last night, Yahoo News held a virtual town hall that featured the chef Jose Andres as well as vice president Joe Biden-- of course, the presidential candidate. And Biden gave some feedback on President Trump's performance.
JOE BIDEN: The president has refused to acknowledge his responsibility. He's refused to acknowledge that anything went wrong. Turn on the television today, and guess what-- everything's going fine, man. We're in great shape. We have all the tests we need to make people be able to go back to work safely. Don't worry about it. I don't need a mask. I'm going to wear-- I got my mask, I can't walk outside my house because the Secret Service is out there-- they're all wearing their masks. They're all getting tested. Come on. It's irresponsible.
JULIE HYMAN: So again, that was Joe Biden giving a critique of President Trump's handling of this coronavirus pandemic. Rick Newman, you have been looking not only at the approach to the pandemic, but also what's going on with the economy and what implications that has for the election coming up in the fall. What are you-- what are you hearing and seeing?
RICK NEWMAN: Major implications. So the research firm Oxford Economics maintains an election forecast tool based on the status of the economy and some other factors. They just updated that, and they found that the odds are not just that Joe Biden will beat Donald Trump in November, but that he'll beat him by a lot-- that Biden could win 65% of the popular vote and around 320-- I think the number's 326 electoral votes. Trump in 2016 won with 306 electoral votes.
And that's just based on the state of the economy in a bunch of swing states. You know, businesses and jobs are getting wiped out everywhere. And Oxford Economics thinks that, based on their economic forecast, Biden could flip seven states that Trump won in 2016, and that would give him more than a comfortable margin of victory. Now, Trump supporters remind me every time something like this comes out, polls were wrong in 2016. The experts were wrong in 2016. And that's all true. So this might not be correct. But I think at this point, it's Biden's race to lose.
ADAM SHAPIRO: Well, let me ask you this question, and it's about the-- what we all believe, that if the economy is bad, the incumbent president doesn't win. What keeps voters in the 50 states from not blaming their governors, whether right or wrong, for the economic hardships-- because the shutdowns were initiated by the governors. And won't the administration point the finger of economic demise at the governors?
RICK NEWMAN: Well, I mean, we know Trump's strategy. His strategy is to point the finger all over the place. I think Trump doesn't have enough fingers to point at all the people he wants to blame for this. He wants to blame China. He wants to blame the governors. He keeps talking about Obamagate, whatever that is. You know, the governors are up for re-election too. But it seems that voters just think of governors differently.
You know, they expect the president to be kind of a, you know, mentor-in-chief, if you will. They look for him for kind of spiritual, emotional guidance, or just a sense that they just want to feel good about the country. Governors are more practical-- you know, just get the job done, fill the potholes. So I mean, this could go to a bunch of different directions, but whether the president deserves the credit or blame for the state of the economy, he usually gets it. I mean, that's just the way it goes.
DAN HOWLEY: Hey, Rick, I just want to ask-- is Biden doing enough to get his name out there right now? Because all we do see is Trump kind of tripping over himself time and time again-- whether or not his supporters see that is another question. But we do see that. We don't see enough of Biden. I know there's been talk about him coming out from his bunker or whatever he's hiding in right now. But is there a plan, do you think, for him to eventually start coming out and making more appearances virtually?
RICK NEWMAN: You know, I've asked a bunch of political analysts this question-- when is it safe for Biden to emerge? And many of them have said the same thing to me. The old political adage-- when your opponent is self-destructing, stay out of the way. And that is what the Biden campaign thinks Trump is doing. I mean, you know, from the briefing where he recommended or asked if it's OK to inject disinfectant, his refusal to wear a mask, and all these things-- I mean, he's getting relatively poor approval ratings, which I guess I should say are disapproval ratings for the way he's handling the coronavirus crisis.
So the Biden strategy seems to be, let Trump keep doing what he's doing. The good-- Biden does have-- he does have to get out there and attain more of his ability. But the good news for Biden is everybody knows who he is. I mean, he has 99% name recognition. So he doesn't have to go around letting people get to know him. A lot of people feel like they know him. He is going to have to start getting around and saying, here's what I would do differently. Here's how I'm going to take America in a different direction.
And I think he's going to start doing that. He's going to have to start doing it, obviously, virtually. And we'll probably start seeing eventually some campaign appearances. But no rope lines-- we're not going to have rope lines shaking hands and people and stuff like that. It's all going to be from a distance.
JULIE HYMAN: Makes sense. All right, Rick Newman, thank you.
