'It's clear that the people who are hurting are the people who have the least to protect themselves': Chief Public Policy Economist
Joseph Minarik, Chief Public Policy Economist at The Conference Board, joins The Final Round to discuss the latest initial jobless claims numbers and what they mean for the U.S. economy.
Video Transcript
MYLES UDLAND: Welcome back to "The Final Round" here on Yahoo Finance. Myles Udland with you in New York. Let's talk a bit about what's going on in the economy right now. For more on that, we're joined by Joseph Minarik. He is the chief public policy economist with The Conference Board.
Joe, great to have you back on the show. So let's think about this through the lens of what we heard earlier today. Initial jobless claims remain discouraging. The housing market continues to exceed pretty much anybody's expectations. As you take stock of the economy right now, how encouraged or discouraged are you by your basic lay-of-the-land take?
JOSEPH MINARIK: You're right that if you look from sector to sector, it's disorienting. It's, of course, like nothing we've ever seen before. Personally, I'm concerned. It's clear that the people who are hurting are the people who have the least to protect themselves. That is worrying.
The fact that Washington is not responding is troublesome. The possibility, of course, that financial markets will start to become discouraged is always there. We're in an election season. Washington
Cannot walk and chew gum at the same time. Throw in the Supreme Court vacancy. There's a vacancy in policymaking which is very worrisome at this time.
MYLES UDLAND: And if we'd had this conversation three months ago-- and I think we probably did-- we said, oh, there certainly needs to be some kind of secondary stimulus package. And as you know well, lawmakers are typically only motivated to do anything in a crisis in the most acute phases of the crisis.
And I think a lot of policymakers now think that that may have passed. We heard the Fed this week reiterate that it is still needed for more fiscal support. But how concerned are you that we may pass through this entire period with that one CARES Act package, and everyone else will just sort of drag their feet, and we'll go on with this uneven recovery?
JOSEPH MINARIK: That is a concern. I was having a bull session with some of my friends from the time I've spent in Washington a couple of days ago. And one of the concerns-- one possible trigger for action would come in the first week of next month, which, of course, is going to be the last employment situation report, the monthly report, that we have before the election.
To this point, to this time, people have been looking at the trend lines, and they seem to be improving, although too slowly. If we get to that employment situation report and the numbers start heading in the other direction, it is possible that the folks who are standing for re-election, which is all of the House and some of the Senate and the president, will look at those numbers and say, holy cow. We can't allow this to sit and fester for another month before folks go to the polls. So that's one possible turning point, but that's really the only one we've got at this point between now and the election.
MYLES UDLAND: And I guess piggybacking off that, is it surprising to you the way the conversation around the economy has, at least in my opinion, quickly become second, third, maybe fourth? Now, granted, an opening on the Supreme Court is a massive story, especially given how that was handled last time. But we are still in an economic emergency of sorts at the very least. And again, I guess I'm a little surprised, maybe, that it has become a secondary concern to everything else going on politically.
JOSEPH MINARIK: I think it is surprising. There is enough to worry about in the economic outlook that you would think that going into an election, both sides, including the president, would want to address this problem. Now, a pandemic is not something you deal with every day. Yes, it does take an awful lot of people's attention. Throw in a Supreme Court vacancy, and you've got a truly extraordinary situation. We've got three things going on here that are extremely unusual.
But even so, you would have thought that response to today's economy would be one thing you could do. It would be a no-brainer for Washington to respond. And yet you've got the differences between the two sides. You've got business liability protection versus financing for states and local governments hanging this up. That's one of the important standoffs.
And that plus the concern about unemployment compensation benefits that some see as being too generous-- our unemployment system, of course, is pretty creaky and runs state by state, which makes adjusting it in a situation like this very difficult. But all that said, you would have expected some agreement and some action.
MYLES UDLAND: All Right. Joseph Minarik with the Conference Board. Joe, always great to get your thoughts. I imagine the next time we'll speak, it'll be after the election. So I guess good luck to all of us out there, and we'll see you o the other side.
JOSEPH MINARIK: OK. Maybe after we know what happened in the election.
MYLES UDLAND: Well, if it's in November, there's no guarantees, of course, as we know. All right. Joe, take care. Thanks for joining.
