Posts by Yahoo Finance
- The Exchange2 days ago
By Yves Lamoureux
How often have you seen us get worried this year on stocks? Never! We held a courageous bull stance all year and never let go. This was taped in January with Jeff Macke.
This cannot be a permanent state of affairs. Many studies are pointing to risk ahead. We would prefer to leave some upsides to others. The best part about reducing risk is also pocketing handsome profits.
Conditions are quickly deteriorating. We did preview the chart of money velocities. It is falling to such an extent that we are shocked. Perhaps the uncertainty created by taper is to blame in part. We are asked about our view of bonds if stocks fall.
We mentioned in the past that this would become a nightmare for asset allocators. We believe in the positive synchronicity of both bonds and stocks to revert to an historic correlation. We think bonds can fall while stocks fall too.
- The Exchange6 days ago
By Desmond Lachman, Resident Fellow, American Enterprise Institute
One has to wonder what Olli Rehn, the European Union’s Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Policy Affairs, is looking at when he boldly asserts that deflation is not a risk for Euro member countries. Not only does he seem to be glossing over the rapid pace of disinflation that has already occurred in Europe. He also seems to be turning a blind eye to Europe’s unusually large labor and product market gaps as well as to the marked deceleration in Europe’s money and credit supply aggregates.
- The Exchange6 days ago
By Laurence J. Kotlikoff, co-authored with Rob Shavell, co-founder of Abine.com
Bitcoins have received a bad rap by many economists and journalists. Andrew Ross Sorkin of The New York Times says that bitcoin is, at best, a second-rate version of gold that only people from Mars and presumably other extraterrestrial abodes would take seriously. He also points to the proliferation of bitcoin alternatives, asking if we can “imagine a world in which we all transact with dozens of different currencies every day with different rules?”
Students of monetary history can certainly imagine such a world. The U.S. “greenback” didn’t make its appearance until the Civil War. Before that all manor of currencies circulated on a routine basis in our young country.
- The Exchange7 days ago
Ryan Detrick is the Senior Technical Strategist at . He has the uncanny ability to connect the dots in a market that seldom makes sense.
The SPY (SPY) gained 27.3% from the end of November ’12 to the end of November ’13. That is one of the best year-over-year gains in years. The next question is what does it mean? Many have been saying all year that ‘up a lot’ surely means we’ll have to come back down even more. Will they finally be right?
Well, it turns out that when the market is up so much one year, it's bullish for the following year.
Going back to 1995, the SPY has gained more than 27% year-over-year 29 times (not including the recent occurrence). Check out the returns. The SPY is higher 12 months later an amazing 29 out of 29 times! Meanwhile, the average return a year later checks in at a very solid 16.6%.
- Yahoo Finance10 days ago
HealthCare.gov, the federally-run health insurance marketplace, is two months old. The site has been riddled with glitches since its launch on Oct. 1, causing the Obama administration to announce delays to multiple components of the Affordable Care Act. On Friday the Department of Health and Human Services said there would be a one-year delay in online health insurance enrollment capability for small businesses with 50 or fewer full-time workers. That came soon after the announcement giving consumers until Dec. 23 – an additional eight days – to sign up for coverage that takes effect Jan. 1, allowing more time for people to compare and shop for plans.
Meanwhile, on Monday the HHS released a progress report for HealthCare.gov that said "dramatic progress has been made on improving" the site, which now has an error rate of below 1% and increased capacity to allow 50,000 users to access it at once.
- The Exchange17 days ago
Dan Dicker is the President of MercBloc Wealth Management Solutions and the author of Oil's Endless Bid. He has been a trader on the floor of the New York Mercantile Exchange for nearly 3 decades. You can find his smart commentary regularly on TheStreet. Today’s report of a deal with the Iranians arresting the development of their nuclear capability has already had a significant affect on the oil market. But what will be the continuing effect of this ill-conceived relaxation of sanctions? There had been strong protest against any kind of compromise deal with the Iranians going into negotiations this weekend in Geneva. Republicans here in the US, as well as the Israelis and the Saudis, have expressed dismay at the timing of negotiations and a deal. What was clear from the Iranian request for negotiations is that sanctions, after years of application, were finally working. That’s because it hasn’t been the trade embargo that has had the greatest negative effect on Iran; it’s been the strong fencing around banking activity financing Iranian commerce that’s been so economically debilitating. Not only were US banks forbidden from it, but also ANY foreign bank doing business with the Iranians had been barred from US government business. This had put legitimate Iranian oil export at a virtual standstill, even as perhaps 600,000 barrels a day of Iranian crude was still dribbling out through bartered or cash deals. The Obama administration will claim that the export limitations on the Iranians of 1 million barrels a day haven’t been changed with this deal, but don’t believe them. It’s really a case of the relaxation of financial constraints that will embolden the Chinese and Indian banks into beginning again slowly to do business with the Iranian oil brokers. You can bet that the solid discipline against Iranian commerce that had brought the Iranians to the bargaining table is now shattered. For the Iranians, while they may have to wait a bit for the new financing to arrive, there is a massive amount of "liquid money" to release into a shriveled economy: almost 100m barrels of excess stockpiled crude and another possible 1.2m barrels a day of production potential can almost immediately be restored (with the right export deal in place). That export potential had a moderate effect on the Brent market this morning, down a little less than two bucks, but will likely have a stronger downward effect as the sanctions begin to ease. What we cannot predict yet is the reaction of the Saudis; with full production of more than 10m barrels a day, they have the swing barrels to make the increased Iranian export virtually unnoticeable to the global market. But with their dismay of this agreement, there is a small chance that they might go the entirely opposite way, engaging in a price war and glutting the market to limit the economic gains of their Iranian rivals. For the stocks connected to the oil market, you’ll find the European and multinational
- The Exchange17 days ago
The Huffington Post named Roderick Boyd one of the 25 most feared financial reporters in America. His book about the near collapse of AIG, Fatal Risk, was long listed for 2011’s Financial Times and Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year. A former staffer at Fortune, the New York Post, The New York Sun and Institutional Investor News, Boyd edited The Financial Investigator blog. Most big companies spend lavishly to build a brand to generate awareness of their products--think of the red and white Coca-Cola (KO) logo or McDonald’s (MCD) golden arches--but there is a Canadian conglomerate that’s taken an opposite tack you might call "profitable obscurity.” The company is called Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) and there is an excellent chance you’ve been in the malls they’ve invested in or the trophy office complexes they own (like the Manhattan’s World Financial Center), bought the goods that came to you from the ports they manage, or use the power they generate or move through their pipelines. And that’s just the way Toronto-based Brookfield likes it. Because with a market capitalization of more than $25 billion--it nears $40 billion when you factor in Brookfield’s equity stakes in their numerous publicly traded subsidiaries--avoiding the bright glare of the spotlight is paying off rather nicely. But the Southern Investigative Reporting Foundation, in a pair of stories, has uncovered why Brookfield deserves a whole lot more scrutiny from investors and regulators. To start with, Brookfield’s profit claims are heavy on clever accounting machinations but light on traditional cash earnings. Look at the company’s recent quarterly filing for a fine example: Brookfield reported a crisp $813 million in profit but $525 million of that comes from settling a lawsuit for less than anticipated. So, because of the miracle of accounting rules, a $905 million payment out the door become a huge profit. Another accounting gambit Brookfield and its subsidiaries employ to great effect is the innocuous sounding “fair value gains.” This represents management’s view on how much their assets appreciated in value over a given period. Now all businesses have to assess their asset values and inform shareholders if they’ve gone up or down, but at Brookfield fair value gains are one of their most important profit centers. In 2011, for example, 35% of the $3.67 billion in net income, or almost $1.29 billion, came from fair value gains; in 2012 it was $1.19 billion, or 43%, of the $2.74 billion in profit. It gets odder still: Fair value gains are whatever Brookfield’s management says they are since no outside consultants are used to value their vast real estate holdings. Moreover, these type of profits exist only on paper and provide no cash to the company. So a multibillion dollar profit may get investors excited enough to bid up the shares but as we’ve seen above, much of that bottom line is just ink on paper, and can’t be used for things that truly build value, like increasing dividends
- Marek Fuchs at Yahoo Finance17 days ago
By Marek Fuchs You may assume Thanksgiving week will pass by in mostly uneventful fashion, but there is actually more to the coming days than shopping while nursing family grievances and tryptophan headaches. Though this holiday-shortened week is commonly taken to be all but newsless – save, that is, for coverage of Friday’s rampaging consumers – it can actually be a bit sneaky. In fact, more than pretty much any other truncated week, this week offers up, along with cranberry sauce and 1,423 varieties of stuffing, a recipe for potential misunderstanding. From the surprisingly heavy economic calendar, to the ample opportunity
to hide bad news, to the threads of thought mistakenly pulled from
- The Exchange22 days ago
Ralph Acampora is Managing Director - Market Analytics at Altaira Wealth Management. He is an educator, market historian and pioneer in the field of technical analysis. He publishes his monthly letter here and is a must follow on Twitter.
Between May 24th and November 12th, 2013 the Dow Jones Industrial Average was locked into a 1,158 point trading range between an intra-day low of 14,551 and an intra-day high of 15,709. This deadlock was broken when Janet Yellen defended the FED's ultra-easy monetary policy at her confirmation hearing on November 13th; on that particular day, the DJIA was off 150 points early in the session, only to reverse dramatically, erasing all of that day's losses and then scoring an all-time new high.