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    Thinking the Unthinkable: Investors Start Hedging Against U.S. Debt Default

    The breakdown of the debt-ceiling talks has caused a major rethink of what had been conventional wisdom on Wall Street: That politicians would never be so crazy as to miss the Aug. 2 deadline and trigger U.S. debt default or loss of America's triple-A rating.

    Or so the thinking went. But after having largely dismissed the debt-ceiling talks as political theater, investors, traders and C-level executives across the globe are now starting to hedge for what was once unthinkable.

    According to various reports, banks and money market funds are starting to hoard cash while businesses are become even more wary about spending money. "While companies generally expect Washington to resolve the debt-ceiling impasse at the last moment, they are lining up extra sources of financing, and carefully husbanding cash just in case a deal falls through," The WSJ reports.

    Given the experience of 2008, when Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy triggered a near shutdown of the short-term credit markets, such steps seem prudent amid great uncertainty over how the U.S. debt ceiling debate will shake out. Similarly, investors are wisely taking some precautionary steps ahead of potential market upheaval as Aug. 2 approaches.

    While the stock market is slowly waking up to the threat -- stocks were down midday Wednesday but well off earlier lows -- the Swiss franc and gold are trading at record levels vs. the dollar. Meanwhile, the price of U.S. credit default swaps are on the rise.

    Renewed concern about Europe's debt crisis is a factor as well and, ironically, European investors seem more spooked about the U.S. debt debate than their American counterparts. But attitudes are starting to shift here as well, which only seems prudent. (See: Worried About the Debt Ceiling? "You Can't Be Conservative Enough," WisdomTree CEO Says)

    Aaron Task is the host of The Daily Ticker. You can follow him on Twitter at @atask or email him at altask@yahoo.com

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    168 comments

    • Shawn  •  10 months ago
      Even if they up the debt ceiling and continue on "business as usual" the default will only get pushed down the road. When the piper does finally get paid it will not be in US dollars and it will be very ugly!
      • David 10 months ago
        I agree precisely. This is why we need to put a stop to it now... Congress has the power to simply vote "no" on the debt ceiling and force a balanced budget. This will not automatically result in a default, unless we choose that route by refusing to make the needed cuts.
      • Linda 10 months ago
        Simply voting "no" on the debt ceiling will NOT force a balanced budget. It will hike interest payments, including the size of the payments we owe on the debt. Raise the ceiling, or pay more for less.
      • Alberto 10 months ago
        ... and start liquidating Fort Knox to pay our (now higher) obligations...
    • scott b  •  10 months ago
      this country has zero financial education. we have to start teaching finance as a mandatory class in high school or we are going to die a slow and painful death. no one seems to understand that EVERYONE on tv is lying
      • William 'D-Fens' ... 10 months ago
        yep basic finance 101 ... most people are financial retarded that's why they bought homes for $800k when they only make $42k a year...bunch of tards
      • Tfr 10 months ago
        minor problem... schools are so dumbed down now that you wouldn't be able to teach something that "complicated". Imagine trying to get public school kids to read "The Road to Serfdom".
      • scott b 10 months ago
        no joke huh. if any student knew what the word serf meant id be surprised. they probably think its going to tell them how to catch waves
    • Jaysun  •  10 months ago
      Interesting to see how the country is all hoping that the politicians and government officials will do the right thing with the money. Who's money? Every cent the government has is from the people, yet the people have no say on how it is used and are having to pay wall street and bankers who are the same thing as politicians (how many of them go from positions from financials to D.C. and the other way around) for their mistakes. This is the definition of slavery. Work to stay alive and give all your money to your masters. The debt ceiling and any other issues however big or small will never fix the problem. You can only fix the problem by going to the root of the problem and completely overhauling the government just like our forefathers foresaw when they drafted the constitution and created the amendments; they knew that after a period of time governments will go bad (self-serving) and even stated that a revolution every now and then is the only solution. Instead of panicking and getting all mad and pointing fingers at democrats or republicans, wake up and look past the short-sighted facade dramatic theater that they are playing out in from of you and see the bigger picture which is the only thing that will solve the problem and redeem true democracy.
      • Ron 10 months ago
        I would like a default, causing rates to go up just a bit - shucks, its the only way my hard earned savings can possibly get some interest. This phoney 0% really sucks! We certainly can not count on Bernanke to help us on this. Savers, the most dependable, productive and NECCESSARY individuals who supply the oil of commerce are being robbed through the double whammy of inflation and willfull monetary destruction.

        Yes, the Gov. lies about inflation, severely reducing the Social Security payments, I-bond protection (like was promised to offset inflation), and is now the world's largest money counterfeiter, yes, legal counterfeiting by your uncle.

        Get this, to add insult to injury Congress is now seriously thinking (if you can imagine the Gov. actually capable of thinking) of changing the inflation formula to a newer one that says consumers make do with cheaper junk instead of the real thing, so they pay less for it therefore inflation is LESS! If you don't believe this to be true - do your own research, educate yourself and go wild at the voting booth.

        If our representatives are not representing US, we can remove them! Remember, its the voters, after all is said and done, that can make a difference.
      • A Yahoo! User 10 months ago
        All we need now is someone to get the public angry enough to lead the revolution. I always figured there would be one in my lifetime. I just don't see a personality strong enough to lead it successfully.
    • TJ  •  10 months ago
      DEAR CONGRESS, Last year I mismanaged my funds and this year my family and I cannot decide on a budget. Until we have come to a unified decision that fits all of our needs and interests, we will have to shut down our checkbook and will no longer be able to pay our taxes. I'm sure you'll understand. Thank you very much for setting an example we can all follow.
    • Goldensach  •  10 months ago
      Seems strange to hoard cash when it, in and of itself is a debt insturment.
      • jaykay 10 months ago
        by gold and silver baby...the ultimate store of wealth for centuries upon centuries.
      • M K 10 months ago
        the only people hoarding cash are the ones who are blindly following the piper. The piper lies. He lulls you to sleep and when enough have jumped on that cash hoarding band wagon, the rug will be yanked and the cash will be devalued and thus create a new class of welfare richless.
    • Calvin Hobbes  •  10 months ago
      The U.S. will create more fiat currency to temporarily solve its financial problems. There is 5000 years of history and hundreds of cases backing this up. What Bernanke is doing is not new. It is old, old, old. The rich have always traded their fiat currency for gold or other assets to avoid a govenment mugging.
      • Sisafitz 10 months ago
        Helloooo zimbabwe, if we monetize the looming 70T of on/off book obligations.
    • MG  •  10 months ago
      I for one have always been a Republican but I promise I will never vote to reelect one person that is office today. Republican or Democrat. We desperately need term limits.
    • TRIUMPH  •  10 months ago
      The Great Depression in progress: 2008-2018
    • toby  •  10 months ago
      If we citizens want to know whose fault this is, we only need to look in the mirror. We elected these people to congress. Yes, Henry, this game of political chicken is all about defeating President Obama from the Republican point of view. On the Democratic side it is all about a false populism. On both sides it is all about preserving the status quo and completing the massive wealth transfer of the last three decades (beginning with the Regan income tax cuts / payroll tax increases) which will conclude with 0.1% of the population owning 100% of the wealth.
    • Mike  •  10 months ago
      When Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) gave her inaugural address as speaker of the House in 2007, she vowed there would be “no new deficit spending.” Since that day, the national debt has increased by $5 trillion, according to the U.S. Treasury Department.

      “After years of historic deficits, this 110th Congress will commit itself to a higher standard: Pay as you go, no new deficit spending,” Pelosi said in her speech from the speaker’s podium. “Our new America will provide unlimited opportunity for future generations, not burden them with mountains of debt.”
    • scott b  •  10 months ago
      wow the market dropped 50 points in about 10 minutes. is this what might finally wake the morons up?
    • Gerry  •  10 months ago
      I think there's enough money coming in to cover debt service on Treasury obl's. Why the talk about default?
    • chas1010  •  10 months ago
      Can we concluded that the last 3 years of pumping unlimited cash into the banks has been a FAILURE...Dems and Reps have screwed the middle class to the wall
    • Johnny  •  10 months ago
      No debt ceiling raise; no more free money; its time for the Fed to budget its income just like normal Americans do. If you don't have the money, then you don't buy the product. Shame on you Washington.
    • Mike55  •  10 months ago
      All this talk about what big investors can do about the debt date but nothing about how a consumer can protect himself. Is there nothing a retiree can do?
    • Stephen  •  10 months ago
      You have to wonder if this not being manipulated by politicians and banks so as to buy up cheap stocks that have gone down, settle the question of debt ceiling, and sell once the stocks have gone back up.
    • Bob D'ofrio  •  10 months ago
      This is meaningless to most Americans. As less than 50% even pay taxes what more can you do to people that have nothing, feel like they are entitled to everything, and live off of the backs ov the other 50%. Parasites always find a new host.
    • jb  •  10 months ago
      There are millions of retirees who would like to see a jack up in interest rates. My parents have CD's and they are lucky if they get 2% with a long term. I love the way these guys say "If only they would compromise!"
    • cootiegiver  •  10 months ago
      "Unthinkable?" The only thing that is surprising to me is that investors apparently aren't bothered by $14.5 trillion in debt, only by the thought that Congress might not raise the debt ceiling.
    • loosid_dreamers  •  10 months ago
      Eric Cantor should recuse himself from the negotiations since he will make a pile of money shorting the bond market if the US defaults. Can you say CONFLICT OF INTEREST? Google the Wall Street Journal - Eric Cantor's Investment. Why is this getting no play on cable news?

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