Will BioDelivery (BDSI) Surprise Estimates in Q4 Earnings?
BioDelivery Sciences International, Inc. BDSI is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2015 results on Mar 10, after the market closes. BioDelivery’s performance so far has been disappointing with the company beating expectations only in one of the last four quarters with an average miss of 10.39%.
Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.
Factors to Consider in Q4
The key highlight of the quarter was when Belbuca gained FDA approval in Oct 2015 for the management of pain severe enough to require daily, around-the-clock, long-term opioid treatment and for which alternative treatment options are inadequate.
The FDA approval triggered a milestone payment of $50 million from Endo International plc ENDP to BioDelivery. The drug was subsequently launched by Endo last month.
Meanwhile, BioDelivery is working on driving sales of its opiod-dependence drug, Bunavail. It is working on expanding the product’s reach through improved managed care access, particularly Medicaid, strong sales management team, expanded pharmacy stocking and enhanced physician targeting.
On the third-quarter call, BioDelivery had said that it expects to see strong growth for Bunavail in the fourth quarter of 2015 and anticipated ending 2015 with about 3,000 prescriptions per week. Moreover, the company’s two-year agreement with Tennessee Medicaid for Bunavail which granted the drug preferred coverage status on its preferred drug list should help drive sales.
Performance of Bunavail and updates related to Belbuca and other pipeline related updates will be the key areas of focus on the fourth-quarter call.
Earnings Whispers?
Our proven model shows that BioDelivery is likely to beat earnings this quarter because it has the right combination of two key ingredients.
Positive ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is +3.64%. This is a meaningful indicator of a likely positive surprise for the shares.
Zacks #3 Rank (Hold): Note that stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) and #3 have a significantly higher chance of beating earnings. The Sell-rated stocks (#4 and #5) should never be considered going into an earnings announcement.
The combination of BioDelivery’s Zacks Rank #3 and +3.64% ESP makes us confident of an earnings beat.
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are a couple of other health care stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.
The Earnings ESP for Auris Medical Holding AG EARS is +6.90% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3. It is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2015 results on Mar 14.
Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc. VRX has an Earnings ESP of +1.89% and a Zacks Rank #3. It is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2015 results on Mar 15.
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BIODELIVERY SCI (BDSI): Free Stock Analysis Report
ENDO INTL PLC (ENDP): Free Stock Analysis Report
VALEANT PHARMA (VRX): Free Stock Analysis Report
AURIS MEDICAL (EARS): Free Stock Analysis Report
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