In this edition, setback shouldn't hold back inflation progress; Charter's future quarters look promising; a mixed bag for Roku; and CyberAgent, Keppel REIT, and Melexis.

U.S. stocks rose on Friday morning following PCE data. The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the personal consumption expenditures index (PCE), rose 0.3% in March, which was below estimates of a 0.5% increase and matched the increase in February. Core PCE also rose 0.3%, which was steady from last month and in line with estimates. The latest readings bring the annual rate for headline PCE to 2.7%, up from 2.5% in February, and core PCE to 2.8%, which was unchanged from last month. The Dow was down 0.4%, the S&P 500 fell 1.1% and the Nasdaq lost 2.1%. Crude oil is trading near $84 per barrel and gold is up $5 to $2348 per ounce.

The Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator, the PCE Price Index, will be released by the BEA this morning. The index differs from the better-known Consumer Price Index because its composition is changed more frequently and is thus quicker to reflect the impact of real-time pricing fluctuations. In the most-recent report, through February, PCE inflation was reported at 2.5%; by comparison, the latest CPI report, through March, had inflation at 3.5%. Core PCE, which removes volatile food and energy prices, was 2.8% in the latest month, down from 2.9% in the prior month. Our PCE forecasts call for 2.7% for the headline number and 2.8% for the core reading -- roughly in line month-to-month as progress toward the Fed's 2% goal gets harder as the target gets closer. Overall, inflation in this cycle peaked in summer 2022 and has been on a downward trek until plateauing recently. We track 20 inflation measures on a monthly basis. On average, they are indicating that prices are rising at a 2.3% rate year-over-year, up 30 basis points versus a month ago. The numbers are distorted somewhat by ultra-low readings within the Producer Price Intermediate Goods category, which are falling at a 7% rate and may well point to easing prices across the inflation spectrum in the months ahead. Focusing on core inflation -- which we obtain by averaging Core CPI, market-based PCE Ex-Food & Energy (from the GDP report), the five-year forward inflation expectation rate, the 10-year TIPs Break-even Interest Rate, and the PCE Price Index -- our reading is 2.9%, up 12 basis points month-over-month. That's higher largely because sticky prices like shelter and transportation continue to escalate (the Sticky Price Core CPI Index reading is currently 4.5%, up from 4.4% a month ago). Investors are expecting that the Federal Reserve's series of rate hikes ultimately will tame inflation, with the five-year forward expectation rate at 2.38%.

There was a very nice kick-save by equity bulls on Thursday, as the bears looked emboldened early but failed despite Meta's meltdown and a tick up in rates. And then there was good EPS news after the close, with GOOGL soaring and MSFT popping.

U.S. stocks sold off on Thursday morning following economic data that led investors to believe that the first interest rate cut will likely be in September. However, stocks recovered some of their losses by market close, while bond yields rose. On the housing front, pending home sales grew 3.4% in March according to the National Association of Realtors, ahead of estimates for sales to remain flat sequentially. The Dow was down 1.0%, the S&P 500 fell 0.5% and the Nasdaq lost 0.6%. Crude oil is trading above $83 per barrel and gold is up $1 to $2343 per ounce.