UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas futures gain 2% on colder forecast for this week

(Adds latest prices, quote) Feb 6 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose about 2% on Monday from a 25-month low in the prior session on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand this week than previously expected. Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly warmer than normal through Feb. 20 except for a few cold days around the Feb. 18-19 weekend. Traders noted cold on the weekend does not boost gas use as much as cold during the workweek because usage is low on weekends when many businesses shut. That price increase came despite forecasts for warmer weather and less heating demand next week and a growing belief that Freeport LNG's export terminal in Texas will soon start pulling in more gas to produce liquefied natural gas (LNG). Analysts, however, have said they still do not expect Freeport to return to full LNG production until mid-March or later. Japanese energy company Osaka Gas, one of Freeport's five big customers, posted a $9.9 million loss for the April-December period. The company said part of the reason for the loss was that it had to buy more expensive LNG from other suppliers due to the Freeport outage. Osaka said it was not counting on getting LNG from Freeport by the end of March. That was the same thing another big Freeport customer, Japanese energy firm JERA, said on Jan. 30. Freeport LNG told Texas state regulators last week that it would start sending gas to one of three liquefaction trains at its long-shut export plant. The plant is waiting for permission from federal regulators to start loading LNG to free up space in its storage tanks. The liquefaction trains turn gas into LNG for export. Freeport, the second biggest U.S. LNG export plant, shut after a fire in June 2022. The energy market expects gas prices to rise once the plant starts producing LNG again. When operating at full power, Freeport can turn about 2.1 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into LNG each day. That is about 2% of total U.S. daily gas production. Federal regulators will hold a public meeting on Freeport on Feb. 11 to provide members of the community and other interested parties an opportunity to voice their concerns about Freeport's restart plans and get an update on what's happening at the plant. Even though some vessels have turned away from Freeport in recent weeks, including possibly the Prism Courage, several tankers were still waiting in the Gulf of Mexico to pick up LNG from the plant, including Prism Agility (Jan. 2), Prism Brilliance (Jan. 26), Kmarin Diamond (Jan. 26) and Nohshu Maru (Jan. 31). Prism Courage, which had been sitting outside Freeport since early November, moved away from the plant and was now listed as available "for orders," according to Refinitiv ship tracking data. Front-month gas futures for March delivery rose 4.7 cents, or 2.0%, to settle at $2.457 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Friday, the contract closed at its lowest since December 2020. "It is interesting to note that the March contract is trading under the lower demand ‘shoulder season’ April and May contracts. Historically speaking, the winter contracts ... typically trade at notable premiums to the demand-minimum Spring contracts," analysts at energy consulting firm Gelber & Associates said in a note. Futures were trading at $2.55 per mmBtu for April and $2.68 for May. On a daily basis, gas production was on track to reach 96.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Monday, up from a five-week low of 93.9 bcfd on Feb. 1 when extreme cold cut output by freezing oil and gas wells - known as freeze-offs - in several states, including Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Pennsylvania. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Feb 3 Jan 27 Feb 3 average (Forecast) (Actual) Feb 3 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -185 -151 -228 -171 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,398 2,583 2,133 2,249 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 6.6% +6.7% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2018-2022) Henry Hub 2.42 2.41 4.46 6.54 3.60 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 17.99 18.58 26.94 40.50 14.39 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 18.53 18.37 25.82 34.11 14.31 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 354 385 405 406 405 U.S. GFS CDDs 4 4 4 6 5 U.S. GFS TDDs 358 389 409 412 410 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 96.0 95.7 95.8 91.7 87.7 U.S. Imports from Canada 8.4 8.4 7.9 10.2 9.1 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 Total U.S. Supply 104.3 104.2 103.7 102.1 97.0 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.7 U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.1 5.1 5.3 6.0 5.2 U.S. LNG Exports 12.6 12.8 12.3 12.3 6.6 U.S. Commercial 18.4 16.1 14.4 19.4 16.4 U.S. Residential 31.5 26.7 23.4 33.3 27.7 U.S. Power Plant 33.5 31.5 31.2 29.6 28.1 U.S. Industrial 26.1 24.7 24.4 26.0 25.2 U.S. Plant Fuel 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.9 4.8 U.S. Pipe Distribution 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.9 3.1 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 117.5 106.6 101.0 116.2 105.4 Total U.S. Demand 137.4 127.1 121.0 136.7 119.9 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended eek ended Feb 10 Feb 3 Jan 27 Jan 20 Jan 13 Wind 16 10 11 13 11 Solar 2 2 2 2 2 Hydro 6 7 7 7 7 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 1 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 35 39 38 36 38 Coal 18 21 19 18 19 Nuclear 19 19 21 21 21 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.40 2.67 Transco Z6 New York 4.51 22.19 PG&E Citygate 4.93 5.35 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 2.12 2.64 Chicago Citygate 2.42 2.85 Algonquin Citygate 11.00 26.06 SoCal Citygate 4.15 6.00 Waha Hub 1.49 2.24 AECO 2.00 2.24 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 215.75 237.25 PJM West 59.75 145.25 Ercot North 17.50 29.75 Mid C 48.50 52.43 Palo Verde 42.10 65.00 SP-5 39.00 66.00 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Mark Potter and Jonathan Oatis)