UPDATE 2-U.S. natgas eases 1% as Freeport LNG targets December restart

(Adds closing prices) Nov 18 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased 1% on Friday, paring losses of more than 5% earlier in the session, after Freeport LNG said it expects to restart its liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas in December. Freeport LNG said it was targeting a mid-December restart for its export plant, which has been shut for six months after a fire. Futures prices were down much more earlier in the day on forecasts for warmer weather that will reduce heating demand in late November and early December. In recent days, a couple of LNG vessels that were either heading for Freeport (LNG Rosenrot) or had waited outside the plant (Prism Brilliance) have moved on to other ports. LNG Rosenrot is now headed for Gibraltar, while Prism Brilliance is sitting outside Corpus Christi in Texas where Cheniere Energy Inc has an LNG export plant, ship tracking data from Refinitiv showed. Federal pipeline safety regulators released a heavily redacted consultant's report this week blaming inadequate operating and testing procedures, human error and fatigue for the June 8 explosion that shut the Freeport LNG plant. Until late last week, Freeport LNG had said repeatedly the plant remained on track to return to service in November. In comments made in recent days, however, the company did not mention a restart date. Many analysts, however, have said the plant would not return to service until December at the earliest. In other LNG news, the Cadiz Knutsen was on track to arrive at the Everett LNG terminal in Boston over the next day or two with a cargo from Trinidad, making it the first LNG vessel to go to the port since August, according to Refinitiv data. But with Everett competing with buyers willing to pay more than $30 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) for gas in Europe versus around $6 in the United States, the Massachusetts port has imported just 16.7 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas as LNG during the first 10 months of this year. That is down from 18.1 bcf during the same period in 2021 and a five-year (2017-2021) average of 33.3 bcf, according to federal energy data. New England depends on LNG and oil to fuel some power plants on the coldest days when most of the region's pipeline gas is being used to heat homes and businesses. About half of the power generated in New England comes from gas-fired plants. Front-month gas futures fell 6.6 cents, or 1.0%, to settle at $6.303 per mmBtu. The contract was down over 5% earlier in the day. That put the front-month up about 7% for the week after it lost about 8% last week. Gas futures are up about 70% so far this year as much higher global gas prices feed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Gas was trading at $33 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in Europe and $26 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia. Once the 2.1 billion-cubic-feet-per-day (bcfd) Freeport facility restarts, analysts expect U.S. gas prices to rise due to increased demand from the country's LNG export plants. Even though some vessels have given up on a quick restart for Freeport, a couple of vessels have been waiting outside the plant since late October/early November - Prism Diversity and Prism Courage - and one vessel was still making its way across the Atlantic Ocean toward the plant - Prism Agility. Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 122.2 bcfd this week to 125.9 bcfd next week with the coming of colder weather before dropping to 117.3 bcfd as the weather turns warmer. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Nov 18 Nov 11 Nov 18 average (Forecast) (Actual) Nov 18 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -77 +64 -14 -48 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,567 3,644 3,626 3,603 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average -1.0% -0.2% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Prior Year Five Year Month Average Average Last Year 2021 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 6.12 6.37 5.12 3.73 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 33.60 34.16 27.71 16.04 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 26.32 25.89 32.98 18.00 8.95 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior 10-Year 30-Year Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 340 350 304 296 319 U.S. GFS CDDs 4 4 8 11 8 U.S. GFS TDDs 344 354 312 307 327 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 98.8 100.0 99.9 95.3 89.6 U.S. Imports from Canada 6.2 8.6 8.6 8.8 8.2 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 105.0 108.6 108.5 104.1 97.9 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 2.3 2.2 2.4 3.3 2.9 U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.1 U.S. LNG Exports 11.5 12.1 12.4 11.3 6.4 U.S. Commercial 8.5 14.2 15.6 12.0 11.5 U.S. Residential 11.6 23.1 25.5 18.2 17.2 U.S. Power Plant 29.1 32.1 31.1 27.4 26.0 U.S. Industrial 22.6 25.2 25.4 23.4 24.0 U.S. Plant Fuel 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.1 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.1 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 78.9 102.4 105.5 88.7 85.8 Total U.S. Demand 98.4 122.2 125.9 108.8 100.2 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week Week ended Week ended Nov 18 Nov 11 ended Nov Oct 28 Oct 21 4 Wind 9 15 12 15 11 Solar 3 3 3 3 3 Hydro 7 6 5 5 5 Other 2 3 2 2 3 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 41 38 39 37 39 Coal 18 16 18 18 19 Nuclear 20 20 20 19 19 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 6.20 5.88 Transco Z6 New York 7.20 7.57 PG&E Citygate 8.80 8.31 Dominion South 5.83 5.30 Chicago Citygate 6.24 5.71 Algonquin Citygate 8.16 5.60 SoCal Citygate 8.64 8.32 Waha Hub 4.97 5.06 AECO 4.96 4.50 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 78.50 72.25 PJM West 81.75 80.75 Ercot North 50.00 52.00 Mid C 89.00 95.50 Palo Verde 84.50 82.75 SP-15 84.75 82.50 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Elaine Hardcastle, Paul Simao and Sandra Maler)