UPDATE 2-US natgas futures settle steady; demand healthy but LNG flows drop

(Adds latest price) Sept 25 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures settled steady on Monday, as less gas flowing to the nation's liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants offset support from healthy demand projections. Front-month gas futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled little changed at $2.639 per million British thermal units. Reduced flows from LNG feed due to maintenance were offset by some overall elevated domestic natural gas consumption, said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy. Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point in Maryland was shut for annual maintenance. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain warmer than usual for the next 15 days. Total Degree Days, the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above or below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius) to estimate demand to cool or heat homes and businesses, were projected slightly higher at 137 on Monday versus 131 forecast on the prior day. Data provider LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would mostly remain unchanged from 94.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 94.9 bcfd next week. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states eased to 102.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, down from a record 102.3 bcfd in August Analysts at Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note that they "still expect output to gradually increase through the end of this year and into next in providing a minor offset against occasional unusual cold spells." In a move that could cut output in coming months, U.S. energy firms last week cut the number of oil and gas rigs operating for the first time in three weeks, energy services firm Baker Hughes said on Friday. U.S. oil rigs fell by eight to 507 last week, their lowest since February 2022, while gas rigs dropped by three to 118. "In the next 30 days, prices will sit in a very small range. There will not be a lot of market volatility unless demand or weather models shift significantly," said Robert DiDona of Energy Ventures Analysis. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Sep 22 Sep 15 Sep 22 average Forecast Actual Sep 22 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 84 64 103 84 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,353 3,269 2,962 3,170 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 5.8% 5.9% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 2.64 7.76 6.54 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 12.25 57.90 40.50 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 14.33 46.99 34.11 8.95 LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 34 24 80 63 73 U.S. GFS CDDs 105 107 61 85 76 U.S. GFS TDDs 137 131 141 148 149 LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year Week Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 101.9 101.6 101.7 92.6 U.S. Imports from Canada 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.8 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total U.S. Supply 108.5 108.3 108.6 100.4 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 2.0 1.8 1.8 2.4 U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.9 7.1 7.2 5.6 U.S. LNG Exports 13.0 12.2 12.4 6.5 U.S. Commercial 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 U.S. Residential 3.9 4.1 4.0 3.9 U.S. Power Plant 35.9 36.1 35.9 34.9 U.S. Industrial 21.5 21.4 21.6 21.5 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 U.S. Pipe Distribution 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.2 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 73.2 73.6 73.5 72.5 Total U.S. Demand 95.0 94.7 94.9 87.0 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Sep 29 Sep 22 Sep 15 Sep 8 Sep 1 Wind 8 5 9 6 Solar 5 4 4 4 Hydro 5 5 5 6 Other 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 43 46 44 45 Coal 17 18 19 19 Nuclear 20 19 17 18 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.63 2.70 Transco Z6 New York 0.78 0.85 PG&E Citygate 3.23 3.26 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 0.80 0.99 Chicago Citygate 2.11 2.19 Algonquin Citygate 1.22 1.11 SoCal Citygate 3.60 5.20 Waha Hub 1.65 1.71 AECO 2.33 2.41 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day New England 21.25 27.75 PJM West 25.00 34.00 Ercot North 48.50 35.50 Mid C 70.00 61.25 Palo Verde 23.75 40.75 SP-15 21.00 41.75 For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down. For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: <0#SNL-NG> For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: <0#SNL-PWR> For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44 For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: For the U.S. power speed guide, see: To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps divided by four) NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined NYMEX Henry Hub futures only ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps (Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad, Arpan Varghese, Harshit Verma in Bengaluru; editing by Jonathan Oatis, Deepa Babington and David Gregorio)