UPDATE 2-U.S. natgas up 1% after paring gains on Texas Freeport LNG delay rumors

(Adds latest prices) Nov 14 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Monday, paring earlier gains of over 8%, on expectations that Freeport LNG will delay the restart of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas from November to December. In addition to price swings due to Freeport, traders said futures soared earlier in the session due to forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand than previously expected through the end of November. Sources familiar with Freeport LNG's filings with federal safety regulators told Reuters on Monday that the company has not yet submitted a request to resume service to the Department of Transportation's Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA). Until late last week, Freeport said repeatedly that the plant, which shut after an explosion on June 8, was on track to return in November. The company, however, did not mention a November restart (or any restart date) in comments made on Friday or Monday. Freeport's comments on Friday were in response to market rumors about pipe cracks, which Freeport called fake news. The company's comment on Monday were in response to rumors about delaying the plant startup until December, which Freeport refused to comment on. After gas prices dropped more than 5% on Friday, some traders called on the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to investigate what Freeport LNG called fake tweets about cracked pipes at the plant. "Any Tweets and/or posts on Freeport LNG branded letterhead that may have been obtained or published, are reporting false information and are not legitimate, official public information from Freeport LNG," Freeport said on Friday. Front-month gas futures rose 5.4 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $5.933 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Earlier in the session the contract was up over 8%. Rapid price changes over the past couple of weeks - futures gained or lost more than 5% on eight of the past 10 days - boosted the contract's 30-day implied volatility index to its highest level since hitting a record in October 2021. The market uses implied volatility to estimate likely price changes in the future. FREEPORT DELAYS Analysts at investment bank Goldman Sachs, energy consulting firm Gelber & Associates and others have said that lack of a request to resume service likely means the 2.1 billion-cubic-feet-per-day (bcfd) Freeport export plant will not return until December. A couple of vessels, meanwhile, were waiting to pick up LNG from Freeport, according to Refinitiv data. Prism Diversity and Prism Courage were offshore from the plant, while LNG Rosenrot and Prism Agility were expected to arrive in late November. But one vessel, Prism Brilliance, which had been waiting outside the Freeport plant, is now waiting outside Corpus Christi in Texas where Cheniere Energy Inc has an LNG export plant, according to Refinitiv data. GAS PRICES Gas futures are up about 61% so far this year as much higher global gas prices feed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Gas was trading at $32 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in Europe and $27 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states slid to 99.0 bcfd so far in November, down from a record 99.4 bcfd in October. With the much colder weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 121.7 bcfd this week to 126.8 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Friday. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants rose to 11.6 bcfd so far in November, up from 11.3 bcfd in October. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Nov 11 Nov 4 Nov 11 average (Forecast) (Actual) Nov 11 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): +64 +79 +23 -5 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,644 3,580 3,640 3,656 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average -0.3% -2.1% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2021 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 6.22 5.88 5.12 3.73 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 33.11 29.97 27.71 16.04 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 27.23 27.55 32.98 18.00 8.95 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 362 355 304 296 300 U.S. GFS CDDs 6 7 8 11 9 U.S. GFS TDDs 368 362 312 307 309 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 98.8 98.7 99.8 95.3 89.6 U.S. Imports from Canada 6.2 7.7 7.4 8.8 8.2 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 105.0 106.4 107.3 104.1 97.9 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 2.3 2.1 2.1 3.3 2.9 U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.1 U.S. LNG Exports 11.5 12.5 12.8 11.3 6.4 U.S. Commercial 8.5 14.2 16.1 12.0 11.5 U.S. Residential 11.6 23.0 26.4 18.2 17.2 U.S. Power Plant 29.1 31.4 30.3 27.4 26.0 U.S. Industrial 22.6 25.2 25.5 23.4 24.0 U.S. Plant Fuel 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.1 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.1 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 78.9 101.5 106.3 88.7 85.8 Total U.S. Demand 98.4 121.7 126.8 108.8 100.2 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Nov 18 Nov 11 Nov 4 Oct 28 Oct 21 Wind 8 15 12 15 11 Solar 3 3 3 3 3 Hydro 7 6 5 5 5 Other 3 3 2 2 3 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 40 38 39 37 39 Coal 18 16 18 18 19 Nuclear 22 20 20 19 19 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 4.80 Transco Z6 New York 3.70 PG&E Citygate 8.46 Dominion South 3.31 Chicago Citygate 5.09 Algonquin Citygate 4.25 SoCal Citygate 8.30 Waha Hub 3.72 AECO 4.09 4.07 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 51.50 PJM West 52.50 Ercot North 45.50 Mid C 125.00 Palo Verde 90.00 SP-15 91.00 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino in New York Editing by Matthew Lewis and Lisa Shumaker)