UPDATE 2-US natgas jumps nearly 5% on cold forecasts, big storage draw

(Adds latest prices) Dec 28 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped nearly 5% on Thursday, boosted by forecasts for colder weather that would boost heating demand and a bigger-than-expected storage withdrawal. Front-month gas futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled up 12 cents, or 4.9%, at $2.56 per million British thermal units. In the previous session, prices rose as much as 6.8% to hit a three-week high of $2.72. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 87 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Dec. 22. That was higher than the 79-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a withdrawal of 195 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average decline of 123 bcf for this time of year. "Mostly its the weather, that's helping prices as we've seen some cold in U.S. maps creeping in, which is eroding some of the bearish sentiments," said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy. "The 87 number that was printed by the EIA was a little above our expectations, but the market seems to have taken it just in stride, and it certainly didn't limit the rally that we already had going." U.S. utilities likely pulled a smaller-than-usual 79 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas out of storage last week as mild weather kept heating demand low, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday. That compares with a withdrawal of 195 bcf during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2018-2022) average decrease of 123 bcf for this time of year. Financial firm LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, at 120.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week, down from last week's 126.6 bcfd, weighed by limited heating demand as businesses and government offices were shut for the Christmas week. However, demand was projected to rise to 130.7 bcfd during next week as the forecast is for January to get colder. LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has risen to 108.7 bcfd so far in December from a record 108.3 bcfd in November Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants have risen to an average of 14.6 bcfd so far in December, up from a record 14.3 bcfd in November. Elsewhere, British and Dutch gas prices eased as mild temperatures for the time of year curbed demand and high gas storage levels weighed on the market. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Dec 22 Dec 15 Dec 22 average Actual Actual Dec 22 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -87 -87 -195 -123 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,490 3,577 3,142 3,174 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 10.0% 8.5% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 2.47 2.64 5.77 6.54 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 11.03 11.65 36.68 40.50 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 11.87 11.95 32.34 34.11 8.95 LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 416 424 496 396 411 U.S. GFS CDDs 1 1 2 5 4 U.S. GFS TDDs 417 425 498 401 415 LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year Week Last Year (2018-2022) Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 109.0 108.7 108.5 98.6 94.2 U.S. Imports from Canada8 8.6 8.5 9.0 10.1 9.1 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 Total U.S. Supply 117.5 117.2 117.5 108.7 103.5 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 3.2 3.4 3.4 2.1 3.2 U.S. Exports to Mexico 4.8 5.4 4.4 5.0 5.0 U.S. LNG Exports 14.7 14.7 14.2 12.1 8.6 U.S. Commercial 13.8 12.7 15.4 20.4 14.6 U.S. Residential 22.0 20.2 25.7 35.6 24.7 U.S. Power Plant 35.2 31.9 34.0 34.9 28.6 U.S. Industrial 24.7 24.1 25.3 27.1 25.0 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.8 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.9 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 104.0 97.0 108.8 126.2 101.2 Total U.S. Demand 126.6 120.5 130.7 145.4 118.0 U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2023 2022 2021 % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual Apr-Sep 79 80 83 107 81 Jan-Jul 79 79 77 102 79 Oct-Sep 81 81 76 103 81 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Dec 29 Dec 22 Dec 15 Dec 8 Dec 1 Wind 19 12 11 12 10 Solar 3 2 3 3 3 Hydro 10 6 6 5 6 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 47 40 41 40 42 Coal 18 17 17 17 17 Nuclear 22 20 20 21 20 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 2.63 2.50 Transco Z6 New York 1.80 1.62 PG&E Citygate 3.58 3.66 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 1.59 1.54 Chicago Citygate 2.10 2.07 Algonquin Citygate 1.88 1.85 SoCal Citygate 2.98 2.77 Waha Hub 2.16 1.50 AECO 1.64 1.57 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 28.00 28.50 PJM West 27.25 27.75 Ercot North 25.75 21.00 Mid C 35.00 36.00 Palo Verde 39.50 29.50 SP-15 40.50 27.50 (Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese in Bengaluru; Editing by Chris Reese and David Gregorio)