3 Transportation-Services Stocks to Watch Amid Industry Challenges
The U.S. equity markets continue to be governed by extreme volatility. The hotter-than-expected inflation reading in January shows that we are not out of the woods as far as inflation in the United States is concerned. The unfavorable inflation report casts doubt on the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates even in May, let alone in March. Reduced freight demand and supply-chain woes, too, act as deterrents. All these factors are denting the prospects of stocks in the Zacks Transportation-Services industry.
Despite these challenges, we think the space still has fuel left in the tank, especially for the operators that target growth opportunities and operating efficiency initiatives. We advise investors to focus on Expeditors International of Washington EXPD, Matson MATX and Despegar.com, Corporation DESP.
About the Industry
The companies belonging to the Zacks Transportation-Services industry offer transporters logistics, leasing and maintenance services. Some industry players focus on the business of global logistics management, including international freight forwarding. Third-party logistics entities provide innovative supply-chain solutions. They also focus on services like product sourcing, warehousing and freight shipping. These companies have expertise in trucking, air and ocean transportation. Some players in this industry deliver domestic and international express delivery services. The well-being of the companies in this industrial cohort is directly proportional to the health of the economy. An uptick in manufactured and retail goods, favorable pricing and an improvement in global economic conditions bode well for industry participants.
3 Trends Shaping the Future of the Transportation-Services Industry
Supply-Chain Disruptions & Weak Freight Rates: Although economic activities picked up from the pandemic gloom, supply-chain disruptions continue to dent stocks in the industry. Below-par freight rates are also hurting the industry’s prospects. Highlighting the weak freight demand, the Cass Freight Shipments Index declined 3.5% month on month in January. This measure has deteriorated month on month in nine of the last 13 months reported, which confirms the overall declining trend.
Strong Financial Returns for Shareholders:With economic activities gaining pace from the pandemic lows, more and more companies are allocating their increasing cash pile by way of dividends and buybacks to pacify long-suffering shareholders. This underlines their financial strength and confidence in the business. Among the Transportation - Services industry players, Matson announced a 3.2% increase in the quarterly dividend in June 2023.
Focus on Cost Cuts to Drive the Bottom Line: Despite signs of cooling inflation, we are by no means out of the woods, with inflation still well above the Fed’s 2% target. With rate cuts not a possibility, at least in the near term, market turbulence is unlikely to go away any time soon. We note that the industry has been experiencing significant levels of inflation, including higher prices for labor, freight and fuel. The industry players are focusing on cost-cutting measures and making efforts to improve productivity and efficiency to mitigate high expenses and weaker-than-expected demand scenarios.
Zacks Industry Rank Indicates Dull Prospects
The Zacks Transportation - Services industry is a 24-stock group within the broader Zacks Transportation sector. The industry currently carries a Zacks Industry Rank #201, which places it in the bottom 20% of 250 plus Zacks industries.
The group’s Zacks Industry Rank, the average of the Zacks Rank of all member stocks, indicates dismal near-term prospects. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
The industry’s position in the bottom 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries is a result of a negative earnings outlook for the constituent companies in aggregate. Looking at the aggregate earnings estimate revisions, it appears that analysts are gradually losing confidence in this group’s earnings growth potential. The industry's earnings estimate for 2024 has decreased 16.3% on a year-over-year basis.
Before we present a few stocks from the industry that you may want to buy/retain, let’s take a look at the industry’s recent stock market performance and the valuation picture.
Industry Lags the Sector and the S&P 500
The Zacks Transportation-Services industry has underperformed the Zacks S&P 500 composite and the broader Transportation sector in a year.
The industry has declined 13.2% over this period compared with the S&P 500's appreciation of 28.3% and the broader sector’s uptick of 6.3%.
One-Year Price Performance
Industry's Current Valuation
Based on the trailing 12-month price-to-sales, a commonly used multiple for valuing Transportation-services stocks, the industry is currently trading at 2.35X compared with the S&P 500's 4.22X. However, the value is higher than the sector's trailing 12-month P/S of 2.01X.
Over the past five years, the industry has traded as high as 3.53X, as low as 1.51X and at the median of 2.53X.
Price-to-Sales Ratio (TTM)
3 Transport Services Stocks to Watch
Despegar.com currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and is the leading travel technology company in Latin America. Driven by upbeat operational efficiencies, the company believes that it will be able to maintain above-market revenue growth in the foreseeable future.
DESP has outshined the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in two of the past four quarters (missing the mark in the other two). The stock has risen 8% over the past six months.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here
Price and Consensus: DESP
Expeditors currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). This Seattle, WA-based freight forwarder’s efforts to reward its shareholders are commendable. EXPD’s liquidity position is encouraging too.
Expeditors has outshined the Zacks Consensus Estimate in only one of the past four quarters (missing the mark in the other three). The stock has rallied 1% over the past six months.
Price and Consensus: EXPD
Matson: This Honolulu, Hawaii-based provider of ocean transportation and logistics services currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. We are impressed by the cost-management actions taken by the company to drive its bottom line. Efforts to reward its shareholders are commendable as well.
Over the past 60 days, MATX has seen the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 earnings move 4.7% north. The stock has advanced 20.5% over the past six months.
Price and Consensus: MATX
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Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Matson, Inc. (MATX) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Despegar.com Corp. (DESP) : Free Stock Analysis Report
