AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON) Analysts Are Pretty Bullish On The Stock After Recent Results
Last week saw the newest yearly earnings release from AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$1.2b and statutory earnings per share of US$2.13. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
See our latest analysis for AAON
Following the latest results, AAON's three analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$1.27b in 2024. This would be a meaningful 8.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 4.7% to US$2.28. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.29b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.38 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
Despite cutting their earnings forecasts,the analysts have lifted their price target 17% to US$95.67, suggesting that these impacts are not expected to weigh on the stock's value in the long term. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on AAON, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$105 and the most bearish at US$80.00 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that AAON's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 8.8% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 21% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.3% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while AAON's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for AAON. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for AAON going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for AAON that you need to take into consideration.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
