Aclaris Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:ACRS) Analysts Are Cutting Their Estimates: Here's What You Need To Know
It's been a mediocre week for Aclaris Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:ACRS) shareholders, with the stock dropping 12% to US$8.48 in the week since its latest second-quarter results. Revenue hit US$1.9m in line with forecasts, although the company reported a statutory loss per share of US$0.42 that was somewhat smaller than the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
See our latest analysis for Aclaris Therapeutics
Taking into account the latest results, the nine analysts covering Aclaris Therapeutics provided consensus estimates of US$7.57m revenue in 2023, which would reflect a sizeable 76% decline over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$1.81 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$8.44m and losses of US$1.80 per share in 2023. So there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a substantial haircut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time holding losses per share steady.
There was no real change to the average price target of US$28.89, suggesting that the revisions to revenue estimates are not expected to have a long-term impact on Aclaris Therapeutics' valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Aclaris Therapeutics at US$43.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$16.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 94% annualised decline to the end of 2023. That is a notable change from historical growth of 43% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 7.4% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Aclaris Therapeutics' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$28.89, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Aclaris Therapeutics going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Aclaris Therapeutics (of which 2 can't be ignored!) you should know about.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
