We expect investors to focus on pipeline updates when Adaptimmune Therapeutics ADAP reports second-quarter 2023 results next month.
Adaptimmune has an impeccable record of earnings surprises in recent quarters. The company surpassed expectations in three of the last four reported quarters, matching once, delivering an average earnings surprise of 36.89%.
Year to date, shares of ADAP have lost 40.4% compared with the industry’s 11.1% decline.
Let us see how things have shaped up for the quarter to be reported.
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Factors to Consider
We expect the company to provide developmental and regulatory updates regarding its pipeline when it reports its second-quarter financial results, as Adaptimmune’s portfolio is currently devoid of any marketed products.
In the absence of any marketed products, the company recognizes collaboration revenues in its top line.
The company currently has three developmental candidates in its pipeline. Its lead product candidate is afamitresgene autoleucel (afami-cel; formerly ADP-A2M4). In the first-quarter earnings release, Adaptimmune reported completion of the submission of the clinical module (Part 2) of the afami-cel biologics license application (BLA).
The entire BLA rolling submission was scheduled to be completed in mid-2023 and an update regarding the same is expected when the company reports its second-quarter financial performance. The ongoing BLA submission is based on data from cohort 1 of Adaptimmune’s pivotal SPEARHEAD-1 study, which met its primary efficacy endpoint. An update regarding cohort 2 of the study is also expected. Aside from synovial sarcoma, afami-cel is also being studied for other cancer indications in early-stage studies.
Adaptimmune’s second pipeline candidate, ADP-A2M4CD8, is being evaluated in several early-mid-stage studies for multiple solid tumor indications. The phase II SURPASS -3 study is evaluating ADP-A2M4CD8 in combination with nivolumab for platinum-resistant ovarian cancer. The phase I SURPASS study is evaluating the ADP-A2M4CD8/ pembrolizumab combo for the first-line treatment of head & neck cancer and the second-line treatment of urothelial cancer.
Further developmental updates on these studies are expected to be provided by the company.
The phase I study evaluating the third developmental candidate ADP-A2AFP, for treating hepatocellular cancer, has stopped enrolling patients.
In the last quarter, the company reported a decrease in research and development expenses due to company restructuring. This trend is expected to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter.
General and administrative (G&A) expenses increased in the previous quarter on the back of one-time expenses. Hence, G&A expenses are expected to subside in the to-be-reported quarter.
Adaptimmune Therapeutics PLC Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Adaptimmune Therapeutics PLC price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Adaptimmune Therapeutics PLC Quote
Early in the second quarter of 2023, Adaptimmune announced entering into a transition agreement with GSK plc GSK to ensure the return of rights and materials comprised within the PRAME and NY-ESO cell therapy programs. The PRAME and NY-ESO programs are the company’s proprietary cell therapy programs.
The companies are also planning to transfer the sponsorship, for the GSK IGNYTE-ESO study and a long-term follow-up study, back to Adaptimmune in the third quarter of 2023.
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Adaptimmune Therapeutics this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. Unfortunately, that is not the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: AdaptimmuneTherapeutics has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% as the Zacks Consensus Estimate and the Most Accurate Estimate are both pegged at a loss of 17 cents.
Zacks Rank: ADAP currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some stocks in the same industry that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Axsome Therapeutics AXSM has an Earnings ESP of +5.36% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Axsome’s stock has increased 0.3% year to date. It beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters while missing the mark on one occasion. AXSM has an earnings surprise of 22.34%, on average.
bluebird bio BLUE has an Earnings ESP of +10.42% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Bluebird’s stock has declined 46.1% year to date. It beat earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters. BLUE has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 88.25%, on average.
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