AeroVironment, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
AeroVironment, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVAV) just released its third-quarter report and things are looking bullish. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of US$187m, some 8.4% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$0.50, 111% ahead of expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
View our latest analysis for AeroVironment
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from AeroVironment's five analysts is for revenues of US$807.7m in 2025. This would reflect a notable 14% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with AeroVironment forecast to report a statutory profit of US$2.69 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$795.4m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.83 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.
Althoughthe analysts have revised their earnings forecasts for next year, they've also lifted the consensus price target 19% to US$179, suggesting the revised estimates are not indicative of a weaker long-term future for the business. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values AeroVironment at US$200 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$160. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that AeroVironment is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that AeroVironment's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 11% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 15% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while AeroVironment's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple AeroVironment analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for AeroVironment that you need to be mindful of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
