AerSale Corporation Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
It's been a mediocre week for AerSale Corporation (NASDAQ:ASLE) shareholders, with the stock dropping 17% to US$17.12 in the week since its latest annual results. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$409m, statutory earnings beat expectations 7.8%, with AerSale reporting profits of US$0.83 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for AerSale
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from AerSale's four analysts is for revenues of US$479.5m in 2023, which would reflect a solid 17% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$0.85, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$495.7m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.04 in 2023. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their sales forecasts and making a substantial drop in earnings per share numbers.
The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$21.50, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on AerSale's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values AerSale at US$23.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$20.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting AerSale's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 17% annualised growth to the end of 2023 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 14% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.2% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect AerSale to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$21.50, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on AerSale. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple AerSale analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with AerSale .
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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