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AFC West over/unders: Will there be more big plays from Alex Smith?

It’s August, which means it’s time to break down Las Vegas over/under win totals. While my teammates Brad Evans and Tank Williams handled the standard over/under lines you’ll find in Nevada sports books, here are some entirely made up over/unders for each team in the NFC South (we’ll be doing every division this week) as the preseason gets into full swing: 

20-yard pass plays for Alex Smith this preseason: 3.5

You can see how this preseason could get messy for the Chiefs. Smith will play his game, which is to avoid turnovers and keep the chains moving. It has been pretty effective, but it’s not exciting. Rookie first-round pick Patrick Mahomes is exciting. He has a cannon arm, a gambler’s mentality and he might have some fun highlights against backup defensive backs this month. The backup quarterback is usually the most popular man in town, especially when that backup was the 10th pick of the draft. THE PICK: UNDER

Alex Smith has rookie Patrick Mahomes, a first-round pick, behind him this preseason. (AP)

Starts for Trevor Siemian in the first three games this preseason: 1.5

Siemian started Denver’s first preseason game. Paxton Lynch will start the second preseason game. Though, after how Lynch looked in the first preseason game, it might not matter. Lynch struggled in relief of Siemian, who was just OK himself. It’s so bad that coach Vance Joseph actually had to tell reporters that third-stringer Kyle Sloter (who actually did make some plays in the fourth quarter) won’t be considered a possibility to start the regular season. Siemian has outplayed Lynch in practice too, but there was the hope that Lynch would come alive in game situations. Lynch still has that chance, but he better really shine in Denver’s second preseason game. THE PICK: OVER

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Preseason carries for Marshawn Lynch: 3.5

Here are Lynch’s preseason carries since 2010, his final season with the Buffalo Bills: 5, 6, 5, 5, 3, 2. It’s not like coaches don’t know what Lynch brings to the table, and it’s not like Lynch needs the extra punishment in games that don’t count. Is the approach different after Lynch had a year off in retirement? Does Lynch need to knock off some rust, especially with a new team? There has been no definitive news from the Raiders in training camp on how much Lynch will play in the preseason. If you’re tuning into Raiders games to see Lynch, the guess is you’re going to be disappointed. THE PICK: UNDER

Key injuries for the Chargers this preseason: 1.5

The Chargers changed cities, but their terrible injury luck followed them up the Pacific Coast. First-round pick Mike Williams has a back problem and we have no idea if he’ll play this season. Guard Forrest Lamp, the team’s second-round pick has a torn ACL and he’s done for the year. Those two were expected to play huge roles. Injuries aren’t supposed to carry over year to year. If you have a lot of injuries one season, that’s not a predictor of more bad luck the next season. Try telling that to the Chargers, who seem cursed. THE PICK: OVER

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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!