Alamos Gold Inc. (TSE:AGI) Shares Could Be 48% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Key Insights

• Alamos Gold's estimated fair value is CA$35.07 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

• Alamos Gold's CA$18.08 share price signals that it might be 48% undervalued

• Our fair value estimate is 71% higher than Alamos Gold's analyst price target of US$20.49

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Alamos Gold Inc. (TSE:AGI) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Alamos Gold

Crunching The Numbers

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$134.8m	-US$53.0m	US$308.0m	US$414.0m	US$494.7m	US$565.1m	US$624.7m	US$674.4m	US$715.9m	US$750.8m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x4	Analyst x3	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 19.50%	Est @ 14.23%	Est @ 10.54%	Est @ 7.96%	Est @ 6.15%	Est @ 4.88%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.2%	US$126	-US$46.1	US$250	US$314	US$350	US$373	US$384	US$387	US$383	US$375

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$2.9b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$751m× (1 + 1.9%) ÷ (7.2%– 1.9%) = US$15b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$15b÷ ( 1 + 7.2%)¹⁰= US$7.3b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$10b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CA$18.1, the company appears quite undervalued at a 48% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Alamos Gold as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.053. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Alamos Gold

Strength

• Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.

• Currently debt free.

Weakness

• Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Metals and Mining market.

Opportunity

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.

• Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.

Threat

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Canadian market.

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Alamos Gold, we've put together three essential factors you should assess:

1. Financial Health: Does AGI have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.

2. Future Earnings: How does AGI's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the TSX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.