Alcidion Group Limited (ASX:ALC) Analysts Are More Bearish Than They Used To Be
One thing we could say about the analysts on Alcidion Group Limited (ASX:ALC) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with the analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.
Following the downgrade, the consensus from three analysts covering Alcidion Group is for revenues of AU$39m in 2024, implying a measurable 4.4% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching AU$0.005 per share. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of AU$44m and losses of AU$0.0022 per share in 2024. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.
See our latest analysis for Alcidion Group
The consensus price target fell 21% to AU$0.077, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Alcidion Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 4.4% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 24% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 20% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Alcidion Group is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for this year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. After such a stark change in sentiment from analysts, we'd understand if readers now felt a bit wary of Alcidion Group.
Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Alcidion Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
