Alcidion Group Limited (ASX:ALC) Analysts Are Cutting Their Estimates: Here's What You Need To Know
Last week saw the newest half-yearly earnings release from Alcidion Group Limited (ASX:ALC), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. It was a negative result overall, with revenues coming in 17% less than what the analysts expected, at AU$19m. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
View our latest analysis for Alcidion Group
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Alcidion Group's dual analysts is for revenues of AU$42.6m in 2023, which would reflect a reasonable 5.2% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of AU$45.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.00065 in 2023. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a earnings per share estimates.
There's been no real change to the consensus price target of AU$0.20, with Alcidion Group seemingly executing in line with expectations.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Alcidion Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2023 expected to display 11% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 34% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 19% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Alcidion Group.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Alcidion Group. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2025, which can be seen for free on our platform here.
We also provide an overview of the Alcidion Group Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Join A Paid User Research Session
You’ll receive a US$30 Amazon Gift card for 1 hour of your time while helping us build better investing tools for the individual investors like yourself. Sign up here
