Ameren Corporation (NYSE:AEE) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript
Ameren Corporation (NYSE:AEE) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript February 23, 2024
Ameren Corporation isn’t one of the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds at the end of the third quarter (see the details here).
Operator: Greetings, and welcome to Ameren Corporation's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Andrew Kirk, Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Modelling for Ameren Corporation. Thank you, Mr. Kirk. You may begin.
Andrew Kirk: Thank you, and good morning. On the call with me today are Marty Lyons, our Chairman, President, Chief Executive Officer; and Michael Moehn, our Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; as well as other members of the Ameren management team. This call contains time-sensitive data that is accurate only as of the date of today's live broadcast and redistribution of this broadcast is prohibited. We have posted a presentation on the amereninvestors.com homepage that will be referenced by our speakers. As noted on Page 2 of the presentation, comments made during this conference call may contain statements about future expectations, plans, projections, financial performance and similar matters, which are commonly referred to as forward-looking statements.
Please refer to the forward-looking statements section in the news release we issued yesterday as well as our SEC filings for more information about the various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. Now here's Marty, who will start on Page 4.
Marty Lyons: Thanks, Andrew. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Beginning on Page four, our strategic plan highlights our steadfast commitment to providing safe and reliable energy in a sustainable manner. We do this by investing in rate-regulated infrastructure, enhancing regulatory frameworks and advocating for responsible energy policies, while optimizing operating performance through ongoing continuous improvement in order to keep rates affordable. Our strong 2023 operating and financial results, which we will cover today, reflect execution on our key business objectives for the year, which will continue to create value for our customers, communities, shareholders and the environment in the years ahead.
I'd like to express appreciation for my Ameren coworkers' unwavering commitment to our strategy. Turning to Page five, this page summarizes our strong sustainability value proposition. Our operations and investments in 2023 made the energy grid safer, smarter, cleaner, more reliable and resilient, supporting thousands of jobs in our local communities in Missouri and Illinois, and driving a positive impact on the economies of each state. In the process, we helped hundreds of local, small and diverse businesses grow, and we gave back to numerous charitable organizations to help our neighbors in need. For example, last year, almost 60% of our total sourceable spend was with suppliers in our Missouri and Illinois communities, while 26% was with local small and diverse suppliers, creating jobs and economic growth and contributing to thriving communities in the areas where we operate.
The positive impact of our investments was reinforced by our top quartile reliability performance in 2023, as measured by the frequency of outages. At the same time, our Ameren supplied residential customer rates, on average, were below the Midwest average. Today, we published our updated sustainability investor presentation called, Leading the Way to a Sustainable Energy Future, available at amereninvestors.com. I encourage you to take some time to read more about our strong sustainability value proposition. Turning to Page six. When I reflect on the business objectives we laid out at the start of 2023, I am pleased to say that we made some great strides in each of our three strategic pillars. That said, we did not achieve the results expected in our Illinois gas and electric regulatory proceedings.
On Page seven, we lay out our key strategic accomplishments for 2023 in more detail. This past year, we invested $3.6 billion in infrastructure, spread strategically across our business segments, in order to improve service for our customers. These investments are needed to reduce the frequency and duration of outages in the face of volatile weather events, such as this past summer, when we experienced the most impactful storms in the last 10 years. Ameren, Illinois' work in restoring power to nearly 200,000 customers in the wake of the June 29, 2023 derecho was recognized with an Emergency Response Award by the Edison Electric Institute at its recent Winter Membership Meeting and there's plenty more work to be done to address aging infrastructure and make the grid stronger and smarter, while supporting the clean energy transition, making it truly an exciting time to be in the utility industry.
Of course, every utility's ability to invest must be supported by constructive regulation, which brings me back to our regulatory developments in the fourth quarter. The State of Illinois has ambitious energy transition goals, goals which we continue to work collaboratively with stakeholders to support. Of course, achieving these goals will require significant sustained investment in the state's energy infrastructure in the coming decades. In 2023, Ameren, Illinois filed plans with the Illinois Commerce Commission, or ICC, to incorporate proposed investments in critical electric and natural gas infrastructure into prospective rates. Unfortunately, the ICC decisions in both the electric and natural gas rate reviews late last year were disappointing, reducing cash flows available for investment and delaying needed investments in energy infrastructure.
We will continue working with stakeholders on a path forward to approval of an electric grid investment plan, revised revenue requirements incorporating ongoing and prospective investments, and an improved overall regulatory environment. We must work to build a stronger understanding that consistent, constructive regulatory environments are required to attract investment, support energy infrastructure development, economic expansion and jobs. Michael will cover the electric multiyear rate plan and the natural gas orders in more detail in a moment. Moving to Ameren, Missouri; in November, Ameren, Missouri filed a petition with the Missouri PSC, seeking approval to securitize the unrecovered investment in and costs associated with the planned fall 2024 retirement of our Rush Island Energy Center.
The securitization is expected to result in significant savings for our customers when compared with cost recovery under traditional rate making. We, of course, recognize the importance of keeping our customers' bills as low as possible, while investing to improve service, which leads me to the third pillar of our strategy, optimizing operating performance. In 2023, our operations and maintenance expenses declined by 4% year-over-year. We automated and streamlined many of our finance, supply chain and customer service and workforce processes and we continue to drive new efficiencies in our field work through deployment of smart meters, work management systems and distribution automation. Notably, our Missouri customer rates have only increased 1.8% compounded annually since the smart energy plan legislation took effect in April 2017, with our Missouri residential customer rates consistently remaining 25% or more below the Midwest average.
For our shareholders, yesterday we announced 2023 earnings of $4.38 per share compared to earnings of $4.14 per share in 2022. The result was above the midpoint of our original earnings per share guidance range of $4.35 per share. On a weather normalized basis, 2023 earnings results represent a 10% increase year-over-year. Turning to Page eight; here, you can see we have delivered consistent superior value to our shareholders for the past decade. Since 2013, our weather normalized core earnings per share have risen at an approximate 7.8% compound annual growth rate, while our annual dividends paid per share have increased approximately 58% over the same time period. This drove a strong total return of 173% for our shareholders from 2013 to 2023, which was significantly above our utility peer average.
This track record of strong and consistent performance gives me conviction regarding our business strategy and rest assured, we are not looking back. We are focused on the objectives ahead. Moving to Page nine; we turn our focus to the current year. We expect 2024 to be another busy year and it hit the ground running. Notably, we will maintain our focus on strategic infrastructure investment for the benefit of our customers, while working hard to reduce operating costs and improve the regulatory environments in which we operate. We expect to invest approximately $4.4 billion in electric, natural gas and transmission infrastructure to bolster safety, security, reliability, resiliency and further the clean energy transition in a responsible fashion.
This represents an increase of 22% from the prior year. Our plan includes approximately $1 billion of investment in new generation this year with new solar facilities expected to be in service by year end. The investment plans are aligned with our regulatory outcomes and expectations associated with each of our business segments. We also have several opportunities to enhance our regulatory and legislative environments in the year ahead. Next week, Ameren, Illinois will file a hearing testimony requesting to update 2024 through 2027 rates for 2023 yearend rate base and a base level of grid reliability investments. Then in March, Ameren, Illinois will file its revised multi-year grid plan with the ICC to address the commission's findings stated in their December order.
An updated rate plan will also be filed to incorporate revised investment plans. Concurrently, we are evaluating all appropriate options to better align prospective regulatory outcomes with the goal of making progress on a reliable clean energy transition in an affordable fashion. We will work with all impacted stakeholders to advocate for constructive regulatory frameworks across our Illinois businesses, which will better support the state's energy transition goals. At Ameren, Missouri, we'd look to obtain approval to securitize the Russia Island energy center and advocate for Certificates of Convenience and Necessity or CCNs for future renewable and dispatchable generation, consistent with the integrated resource plan filed in September. The plan calls for investment in new dispatchable energy resources, including an on-demand 800 megawatt gas simple cycle energy center by 2027, which could be turned on as needed in a matter of minutes to ensure reliability of the energy grid during periods of peak energy demand.
In January, we filed a request for the air permit for this simple cycle plant, Castle Bluff Energy Center to be located on the site of our retired Merrimack Energy Center. Utilizing this site, will keep construction costs down, bring back jobs and provide additional tax revenue for the surrounding region. We expect to file for CCN approval with the Missouri PSE later this year. We will also continue to support the analysis and approval of potential MISO tranche 2 transmission projects that will serve the needs of the Midwest region, improving the grid's ability to integrate renewable resources efficiently and effectively. Given the importance of dispatchable generation to reliability, we are advocating for improved Missouri regulatory treatment for generation investments, akin to the treatment afforded other investments in electric infrastructure in the state.
Further on the legislative front in both Missouri and Illinois, we are advocating for Right of First Refusal -- Right of First Refusal Legislation to support the timely construction of transmission resources needed for system reliability and efficiency and to maximize customer benefits. Shifting our focus to operations, as we identify ways to continuously improve our business, we're focused on maintaining disciplined cost management to hold operations and maintenance expenses flat in 2024 to 2023 levels. Moving now to Page 10; yesterday afternoon, we announced that we expect our 2024 earnings to be in a range of $4.52 to $4.72 per share. Based on the midpoint of this range, this represents 6.2% earnings per share growth compared to the midpoint of our original 2023 guidance range of $4.35 per share.
Michael will provide you with more details on our 2024 guidance a bit later. We expect to deliver 6% to 8% compound annual earnings per share growth from 2024 through 2028, using the midpoint of our 2024 guidance of $4.62 per share as the base. At this time, we expect earnings growth to trend below the midpoint of our range until the outlook in Illinois improves or the impacts of other growth opportunities are realized. That being said, we continue to have an outstanding portfolio of investment opportunities across our business segments, totalling more than $55 billion over the next 10 years and a strong balance sheet, which provide us potential earnings growth levers that warrant maintaining a guidance range with up to 8% growth. Our dividend is another important element of our strong total shareholder return proposition.
Earlier this month, Ameren's board of directors approved a quarterly dividend increase of 6.3%, resulting in an annual dividend rate of $2.68 per share. This represents the 11th consecutive year that we have raised the dividend and reflects confidence by Ameren's board of directors in our business outlook and management's ability to execute our strategy. Looking ahead, we expect Ameren's future dividend growth to be in line with our long-term earnings per share growth expectations and within a payout ratio range of 55% to 65%. We expect our weather normalized dividend payout ratio in 2024 to be approximately 58%. Over the last decade, we have gradually lowered our payout ratio, which provides financial flexibility, while executing our robust energy infrastructure investment plans.
Turning to Page 11; the strong long-term earnings growth I just discussed is primarily the result of rate-based growth driven by investment in energy infrastructure, made strategically under constructive regulatory frameworks. Today, we are rolling forward our five-year investment plan and as you can see, we expect to grow our rate base in an 8.2% compound annual rate for 2023 through 2028. This plan represents an increase of $2.2 billion compared to the $19.7 billion five-year plan for 2023 through 2027 that we laid out last February. The plan includes investment in renewables and simple cycle gas generation consistent with Ameren Missouri's integrated resource plan and because of the ICC's orders late last year, our capital plan for Ameren Illinois investments has been reduced by approximately $400 million from 2024 through 2027 compared to our prior five-year plan.
We expect that this level of investment, which we expect will provide safe and adequate service as well as meet compliance requirements under the Climate and Equitable Jobs Act will ultimately be approved by the ICC. That said, we continue to believe that a higher level of investment supported by a more constructive return on capital investment would be in the best interest of our customers and communities and we will continue our advocacy. Finally, we remain focused on keeping customer bills as low as possible and improving earned returns in all of our businesses. Moving to Page 12; as we look to the future, our five-year plan is not only focused on delivering strong results through 2028, but it's also designed to position Ameren for success over the next decade and beyond.
The right side of this page shows how our allocation of capital is expected to change over the next five years. Incorporating generation investment opportunities from our latest IRP, we expect our 2028 rate base to reflect our diversified approach for maintaining reliability with renewable generation and dispatchable generation representing 12% and 11% of rate base, respectively. Notably, our coal-fired generation is expected to be just 3% of rate base by the end of 2028. The bottom line is that we are taking steps today across the board to position Ameren to provide safe, reliable, affordable and cleaner energy for the long-term. Moving now to Page 13; our investment plan released today incorporated our intentions to invest over time in significant renewable and dispatchable resources as laid out in our Ameren, Missouri IRP.
In 2023, we were pleased that Missouri PSC approved CCNs for the Huck Finn and Boomtown solar projects, and in doing so, indicated support for our responsible gradual transition and I'm happy to announce that we reached a stipulation and agreement regarding our next four solar projects, totalling 550 megawatts. These projects will support our lease cost plan for meeting customers' energy needs as we systematically invest to create a diverse mix of generation resources that preserves reliability as we retire our existing coal fleet over the next 20 years. While the Missouri PSC is under no deadline to issue an order on these four project CCNs, we expect a decision in March with these projects expected to go in service between 2024 and 2026. We expect to file additional CCNs consistent with the IRP later this year.
Moving to Slide 14; as we've discussed in the past, MISO completed a study outlining a proposed roadmap of transmission projects through 2039. Detailed project planning, design work and procurement for the Tranche 1 projects assigned or awarded to Ameren is underway, and we expect construction to begin in 2026. During 2023, Ameren was awarded the first two competitive Tranche 1 projects, totalling approximately $100 million. Ameren submitted the third and final Tranche 1 competitive bid in October and expects the project to be awarded by June 2024. When awarding the competitive projects to Ameren, MISO noted our sound route design, engineering and cost containment plan, and innovative approach working with stakeholders as key factors in the winning bids.
This is indicative of how we plan and develop all transmission projects. We believe our collaborative, customer-centric and community-respectful approach to building and maintaining low-cost projects is why we should be directly assigned these projects in the future in both Missouri and Illinois. MISO expects to approve a set of Tranche 2 long-range transmission projects in the first half of 2024, which will again address Midwest region needs. Turning now to Page 15; looking ahead over the next decade, we have a robust pipeline of investment opportunities of over $55 billion that will deliver significant value to all of our stakeholders by making our energy grid stronger, smarter and cleaner. Of course, our investment opportunities will also create thousands of jobs for our local economies.
Maintaining constructive energy policies that support robust investment in energy infrastructure and a transition to a cleaner future in a responsible fashion will be critical to meeting our country's energy needs and delivering on our customers' expectations. Moving to Page 16; discipline cost management and a focus on customer affordability is nothing new to us here at Ameren and we expect 2024 to be another year of disciplined cost control and value realization from continuous improvement initiatives, which Michael will provide more details on in a few minutes. Through innovation and new efficiencies, we continue to target flat operations and maintenance expenses through 2028. Moving to Page 17; to sum up our value proposition, we remain firmly convinced that the execution of our strategy in 2024 and beyond will continue to deliver superior value to our customers, shareholders and the environment.
We believe our expectation of 6% to 8% compound annual earnings growth from 2024 through 2028, is driven by strong rate-based growth and supported by a strong balance sheet, compares favourably with our regulated utility peers. I'm confident in our ability to execute our strategy and investment plans across all four of our business segments, as we have an experienced and dedicated team with a track record of execution. Further, our shares continue to offer investors an attractive dividend, and we are positioned well for future dividend growth. Simply put, we believe this results in an attractive, total return opportunity for shareholders. Again, thank you all for joining us today, and I will now turn the call over to Michael.
Michael Moehn: Thanks, Marty, and good morning, everyone. Turning now to Page 19 of our presentation; yesterday, we reported 2023 earnings of $4.38 per share, compared to earnings of $4.14 per share in 2022, an increase of approximately 6%. This page summarizes key drivers impacting earnings in each segment, which are largely consistent with what we reported throughout 2023. As Marty noted, when normalized for temperature variations over the past two years, we estimate that our earnings grew 10%. Moving to Page 20, I'll cover our few key developments from the fourth quarter. In November, Ameren Missouri filed for securitization of costs associated with the Rush Island Energy Center as we approach the plan retirement date of October 15, 2024.
If approved as requested, Ameren Missouri would be able to refinance and recover approximately $519 million, reflecting the remaining value of the plant and decommissioning costs. Missouri PSC orders are expected in June, 2024. To mitigate the impact of the lost rate base associated with the Rush Island retirement, we expect our Huck Finn and Boomtown solar facilities with an estimated total investment of approximately $650 million to be placed in service near the end of this year. Turning to Page 21, as Marty mentioned, late in 2023, the ICC issued orders under Ameren Illinois Natural Gas and Electric Rate Reviews. In November, the ICC approved $112 million annual base rate increase for natural gas delivery service, which included $77 million that would have otherwise been recovered under letters.
The order reflects a 2024 future test year, a 9.44% allowed return on equity, a 50% common equity layer, and a rate base of $2.85 billion. New rates were effective in late November. We filed for a rehearing of this order with the ICC and were denied. So on January 03, Ameren Illinois appealed the ICC decision to the Illinois Fifth District Appellate Court, seeking that the ICC modify the return on equity and certain plant disallowances, among other things. The court is under no deadline to address this appeal. Turning to Page 22, in December, the ICC issued an order in our Ameren Illinois Electric Multi-Year Rate and Grid Plan filings. In its order, the ICC established an alternative revenue requirement based on our 2022 rate base, and is requiring us to refile and provide additional justification for our grid plan.
We're in the process of revising our grid plan and we'll file it by the March 13 deadline. We will also revise our multi-year rate plan to incorporate these grid plan revisions. In the meantime, the December order reflects a cumulative increase from 2024 through 2027 of $142 million in revenues. The order approved an allowed return on equity of approximately 8.72% and a 50% equity layer. In January, Ameren Illinois filed for a rehearing of the December order with the ICC. On January 31, the ICC ordered a partial rehearing regarding certain operations and maintenance expenses, use of the 2022 rate base for establishing the revenue requirement for 2024 through 2027, and a base level of grid reliability investments. We expect a decision on these items subject to rehearing by the end of June with new interim rates expected to be effective at the discretion of the commission.
Following the ICC's response to our rehearing request, Ameren Illinois also filed an appeal to the Illinois Fifth District Appellate Court on January 31, to address the remaining items which were denied for rehearing, including the return on equity. The court is under no deadline to address this appeal. We remain focused on providing safe and adequate service for our Illinois customers. Moving to Page 23; our overall outlook remains bright as we have a robust pipeline of investment opportunities. Our Ameren Transmission Missouri business lenders continue to benefit from meaningful ongoing investments to work by reliable, constructive regulation. Here we provide an overview of our $21.9 billion of planned capital expenditures for 2024 through 2028 by business segment that supports our consolidated 8.2% compound annual rate-based growth expectations.
As you can see on the right side of this page, we're allocating capital consistent with the allowed return on equity under each regulatory framework. Our Ameren Missouri Smart Energy Plan filed today with the Missouri PSC provides more detail on how we strategically invest to replace aging infrastructure with more resilient, reliable equipment to serve our customers. After five years of Smart Energy Plan investments, we are a full year ahead of our initially planned smart meter installation in the state. That said, at our current investment levels, we still have decades of investment needed to address aging distribution substations and overhead and underground lines. You can find additional details on the Smart Energy Plan allocation of our 2024 planned capital investments on Page 32 and Page 33 in the appendix of this presentation.
Turning to Page 24, we have outlined here the expected funding sources for the infrastructure investments noted on the prior page. We expect continued growth in cash from operations as investments are reflected in customer rates. We also expect to generate significant tax deferrals driven primarily by the timing difference between financial statement, depreciation reflected in customer rates and the accelerated depreciation for tax purposes. As we sit here today, we do not expect a transferability of solar and wind tax credits materially impact capital funding, nor do we expect the corporate minimum tax to apply during our five-year plan. From a financing perspective, we expect to continue to issue long-term debt to fund a portion of our cash requirements.
For us to maintain a strong balance sheet while we fund a robust infrastructure investment plan, we have entered into forward sales agreements for $230 million of common stock issuances under our at-the-market equity distribution program to address most of our 2024 equity needs. We expect to sell these by the end of the year. The only additional equity we expect to issue in 2024 will be approximately $70 million for our dividend reinvestment and employee benefit plans. Incremental equity issues of approximately $600 million each year are planned for 2025 through 2028, a portion of which we expect to be issued through our DRIP and employee benefit plans. The $600 million per year is unchanged from our previous plan outline last February. All of these actions are expected to sustain our strong balance sheet and credit ratings.
Moving to Page 25 of our presentation, I would now like to discuss key drivers impacting our 2024 earnings guidance. We expect 2024 diluted earnings per share in the range of $4.52 per share to $4.72 per share. This accommodates a range of outcomes on our ongoing Illinois regular proceedings, along with our typical business risk and opportunities. Detailed by segment as compared to the 2023 results can be found on this page and the next. Beginning with Ameren Missouri, earnings are expected to rise in 2024. Earnings are expected to be favourably impacted by the higher investments in infrastructure that are eligible for PISA and AFDC treatment, as well as new electric service rates effective July 2023. Earnings are also expected to benefit from higher weather normalized kilowatt hour sales to Missouri residential and commercial customers, which are expected to increase by 1% year-over-year in 2024, while sales to industrial customers are expected to increase by 4% year-over-year.
These projected increases are driven primarily by customer count growth and General Motors resuming full production levels after a work stoppage in the third quarter of 2023. We also expect to benefit from lower operations and maintenance expenses. And we expect a return to normal weather in 2024 will increase Ameren Missouri earnings by approximately $0.03 compared to 2023 results. These favourable factors are expected to be partially offset by higher interest expense, primarily due to higher long-term debt balances. Moving on, earnings from our FERC regulated electric transmission activities are expected to benefit from additional investments in Ameren, Illinois and ATXI projects made under forward-looking formula rate making. Turning to Page 26; for Ameren Illinois electric distribution, the year-over-year earnings comparison will be impacted by the lower allowed ROE approved by the ICC in the multi-year rate plan versus the 2023 allowed ROE, which was driven by the 30-year treasury rates plus 580 basis points.
The allowed ROE is applied to yearend rate base, which includes 2023 rate base and 2024 plan capital additions. For Ameren, Illinois natural gas, earnings will benefit from higher delivery service rates effective November, 2023, incorporating additional infrastructure investments, partially offset by a lower allowed ROE and common equity ratio. Earnings will also benefit from lower operations and maintenance expenses. Moving now to Ameren wide drivers and assumptions; we expect increased weighted average common shares outstanding to unfavorably impact earnings per share. We expect higher interest rate expense in Ameren parent due to increased debt balances. At the end of 2023, we turned out all then outstanding commercial paper balances at Ameren parent through two debt offerings.
The first issued in November was $600 million and 5.7% senior unsecured notes due in 2026 and the second in December was $700 million of 5% senior unsecured notes due in 2029. Of course, in 2024, we'll seek to manage all of our businesses to earn as close to our allowed returns as possible. With that in mind, and support our expectation for lower operations and maintenance expenses in our Ameren Missouri and Illinois natural gas businesses, we've instituted several cost saving initiatives in 2024, including a hiring freeze, reducing our contractor and consultant workforce and deferring or eliminating discretionary spend. We'll be strategic about workforce management and continued investment in digital efficiency to allow us to sustain these cost reductions.
Before moving on, I'd like to touch on the expected sales growth for our service territory. While we're conservative on our model and we are optimistic about the opportunity for strong economic development in the years ahead. in the last three years, our economic development teams have helped to bring 65 new projects to our communities in Missouri and over 125 projects in Illinois, bringing with an estimated total of over 14,000 jobs. These projects are generally expected to be completed in the next couple of years. With that in mind, we expect weather normalized kilowatt hour sales to be in the range of flat to up approximately 0.5%, compounded annually over a five-year plan, excluding the effects of our new energy efficiency plans, using 2023 as the base year.
We exclude the effects because the plan provides rate recovery to ensure that earnings are not affected by reduced electric sales, resulting from our energy efficiency efforts. Turning to Illinois, we expect our weather normalized kilowatt hour sales to be relatively flat to down 0.5% over our five-year plan, driven primarily by increases in energy efficiency and solar adoption. Recall that changes in Illinois electric sales, no matter the cause, do not affect earnings since we have full revenue decoupling. Finally, moving to Page 27, I'll emphasize again that we have a strong team and a long track record of execution. We delivered strong earnings growth in 2023 and expect to continue to deliver 6% to 8% compound earnings per share growth over the next five years, driven by robust rate-based growth and disciplined cost management.
We believe this growth will compare favorably with the growth of our peers. Further, Ameren shares continued to offer investors an attractive dividend. In total, we have an attractive total share of return story. That concludes our prepared remarks. We now invite your questions.
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