Americans Support the Shutdown, Not the Protests

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What exactly are we to make of the protests against the current shutdown to fight the coronavirus pandemic?

For one thing, they’re small and unrepresentative: The vast majority of U.S. citizens say they support the shutdown policy, and that support is if anything growing. Political scientist John Sides has the data. “Cancel all meetings or gatherings of more than 10 people, like sports events, concerts, conferences, etc.” has 87% of the public’s support. “Restrict all non-essential travel outside the home" has 86% support, while 88% agree that we should “Encourage people to stay in their homes and avoid socializing with others." Sides adds that strong support for these and similar measures is at 64%, which is up a bit from March.

So when ABC News claims that these protests indicate that “Opposition to COVID-19 stay-at-home orders has continued to build from coast to coast” they’re just plain wrong.

Now, it’s also the case that these protests appear to be “astroturfed” — that is, they’re organized efforts by national political groups intended to show grass-roots support. That doesn’t mean that they’re not real, or shouldn’t be covered by the media. But the sponsors are part of the story too, as is the fact that public opinion is overwhelmingly on the other side. That should be the context when deciding whether to spend scarce media time on this story.

What adds to the confusion is that these rallies are often done in the name of President Donald Trump, even though they’re protesting Trump’s own policies. After all, while state governors are the immediate targets of the protests, and are generally the ones putting the restrictions in place, those policies are fully consistent with what the Trump administration has been recommending. Yes, Trump himself has been ambivalent about them at times, but he’s been mostly committed since extending the federal guidelines through the end of April.

It’s true that there are still a few voices within the Republican-aligned media who are downplaying the pandemic, even as the infections and death tolls continue to rise. But again to Trump’s credit, he has largely separated himself from such talk. If anything, he’s been inflating the damage the coronavirus would be doing without government action. Even his talk last week about opening things up in May turned out to be far less than meets the eye. Trump may still hope for a miraculous recovery, but for now he appears to actually be listening to the experts.

And yet he can’t quite bring himself to admit that he’s choosing the responsible policy, or to criticize anyone who supports him. So at the same time, he’s been tweeting that he wants to “liberate” the states that drew the first demonstrations, and has repeatedly tried to find a way to say that he supports the protesters, even though they are, again, protesting his own policies.

All of which sure seems confusing to me. The good news? Those numbers Sides reports. I’ve been extremely critical of Trump’s communications during this crisis, but most Americans seem to support the social-distancing plan — and not just with lip service, but with surprisingly high voluntary compliance. Now, perhaps that won’t always be the case going forward. But that’s what’s happening now, and a handful of small demonstrations doesn’t change it.

1. Daniel M. Thompson, Jennifer Wu, Jesse Yoder and Andrew B. Hall at the Monkey Cage with the evidence that vote-by-mail doesn’t give either party an advantage.

2. Matthew Dickinson with the second part of his look at Gerald Ford, the swine flu and how presidents need to deal with experts.

3. Julia Azari and Seth Masket at Mischiefs of Faction on the end of the 2020 nomination fight, Joe Biden as a nominee and more.

4. Susan Glasser on Trump’s coronavirus reaction.

5. And my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Francis Wilkinson on the pandemic and the gun lobby.

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This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Jonathan Bernstein is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering politics and policy. He taught political science at the University of Texas at San Antonio and DePauw University and wrote A Plain Blog About Politics.

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