Amicus Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:FOLD) Just Reported Annual Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?
Last week saw the newest full-year earnings release from Amicus Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:FOLD), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. The statutory results were not great - while revenues of US$399m were in line with expectations,Amicus Therapeutics lost US$0.51 a share in the process. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Amicus Therapeutics after the latest results.
See our latest analysis for Amicus Therapeutics
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Amicus Therapeutics' eleven analysts is for revenues of US$532.9m in 2024. This reflects a substantial 33% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Amicus Therapeutics forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.015 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$534.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.063 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a large cut to EPS estimates.
The consensus price target held steady at US$19.22, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Amicus Therapeutics at US$22.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$16.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Amicus Therapeutics' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 33% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 21% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 17% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Amicus Therapeutics is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$19.22, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Amicus Therapeutics. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Amicus Therapeutics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Amicus Therapeutics you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
