Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Exagen Inc. (NASDAQ:XGN) After Its Annual Report
A week ago, Exagen Inc. (NASDAQ:XGN) came out with a strong set of annual numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. It looks like a positive result overall, with revenues of US$53m beating forecasts by 4.4%. Statutory losses of US$1.34 per share were 4.4% smaller than the analysts expected, likely helped along by the higher revenues. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Exagen after the latest results.
View our latest analysis for Exagen
After the latest results, the six analysts covering Exagen are now predicting revenues of US$54.2m in 2024. If met, this would reflect an okay 3.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to hold steady at around US$1.36. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$54.1m and losses of US$1.36 per share in 2024.
The consensus price target was unchanged at US$5.50, suggesting that the business - losses and all - is executing in line with estimates. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Exagen, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$7.00 and the most bearish at US$5.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Exagen's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 7.5% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 17% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Exagen.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Exagen analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Exagen you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
