Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of National Bank Holdings Corporation (NYSE:NBHC) After Its Annual Report
Investors in National Bank Holdings Corporation (NYSE:NBHC) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.3% to close at US$35.82 following the release of its full-year results. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$418m, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at US$3.72 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on National Bank Holdings after the latest results.
View our latest analysis for National Bank Holdings
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from National Bank Holdings' five analysts is for revenues of US$430.4m in 2024. This reflects an okay 3.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to fall 14% to US$3.25 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$433.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.34 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$41.40, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values National Bank Holdings at US$45.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$38.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that National Bank Holdings is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that National Bank Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 7.0% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.5% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that National Bank Holdings is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$41.40, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for National Bank Holdings going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You still need to take note of risks, for example - National Bank Holdings has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
