Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Evolus, Inc. (NASDAQ:EOLS) After Its Full-Year Report
Last week, you might have seen that Evolus, Inc. (NASDAQ:EOLS) released its yearly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.6% to US$14.07 in the past week. The results overall were pretty much dead in line with analyst forecasts; revenues were US$202m and statutory losses were US$1.08 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
See our latest analysis for Evolus
After the latest results, the seven analysts covering Evolus are now predicting revenues of US$263.2m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a major 30% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 41% to US$0.63. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$263.5m and losses of US$0.66 per share in 2024. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers were unchanged.
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$22.29, suggesting that reduced loss estimates are not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Evolus at US$27.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$16.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Evolus shareholders.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Evolus' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 30% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 46% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 9.1% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Evolus is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$22.29, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Evolus. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Evolus analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Evolus (at least 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
