Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Cognex Corporation (NASDAQ:CGNX) After Its Yearly Report
Investors in Cognex Corporation (NASDAQ:CGNX) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.7% to close at US$38.13 following the release of its yearly results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$838m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Cognex surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.65 per share, modestly greater than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Cognex after the latest results.
See our latest analysis for Cognex
After the latest results, the 16 analysts covering Cognex are now predicting revenues of US$935.2m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 12% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to step up 19% to US$0.79. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$940.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.95 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a real cut to EPS estimates.
The consensus price target held steady at US$44.07, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Cognex, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$60.00 and the most bearish at US$35.00 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Cognex's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 12% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 5.4% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.3% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Cognex is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Cognex. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$44.07, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Cognex analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Cognex that you should be aware of.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
