Analysts Just Made A Neat Upgrade To Their BioNTech SE (NASDAQ:BNTX) Forecasts
BioNTech SE (NASDAQ:BNTX) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's statutory forecasts. The analysts greatly increased their revenue estimates, suggesting a stark improvement in business fundamentals. BioNTech has also found favour with investors, with the stock up an impressive 18% to US$417 over the past week. We'll be curious to see if these new estimates convince the market to lift the stock price higher still.
Following the upgrade, the latest consensus from BioNTech's ten analysts is for revenues of €17b in 2021, which would reflect a sizeable 121% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 109% to €35.08. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €13b and earnings per share (EPS) of €29.35 in 2021. So we can see there's been a pretty clear increase in analyst sentiment in recent times, with both revenues and earnings per share receiving a decent lift in the latest estimates.
Check out our latest analysis for BioNTech
With these upgrades, we're not surprised to see that the analysts have lifted their price target 20% to €199 per share. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values BioNTech at €395 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €107. We would probably assign less value to the forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be possible to derive much meaning from the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that BioNTech's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2021 expected to display 4x growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6,061% over the past year. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.4% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that BioNTech is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us from these new estimates is that analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, with improved earnings power expected for this year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for this year, and sales are expected to grow faster than the wider market. With a serious upgrade to expectations and a rising price target, it might be time to take another look at BioNTech.
Analysts are definitely bullish on BioNTech, but no company is perfect. Indeed, you should know that there are several potential concerns to be aware of, including concerns around earnings quality. You can learn more, and discover the 1 other warning sign we've identified, for free on our platform here.
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are upgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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