Analysts Just Slashed Their Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (NASDAQ:ADPT) EPS Numbers
The analysts covering Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation (NASDAQ:ADPT) delivered a dose of negativity to shareholders today, by making a substantial revision to their statutory forecasts for next year. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts went under the knife, suggesting analysts have soured majorly on the business. Bidders are definitely seeing a different story, with the stock price of US$4.03 reflecting a 15% rise in the past week. Whether the downgrade will have a negative impact on demand for shares is yet to be seen.
Following the downgrade, the current consensus from Adaptive Biotechnologies' eight analysts is for revenues of US$230m in 2024 which - if met - would reflect a major 28% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to be contained, narrowing 16% per share from last year to US$1.14 per share. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$258m and US$0.96 per share in losses. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.
View our latest analysis for Adaptive Biotechnologies
The consensus price target fell 22% to US$9.17, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Adaptive Biotechnologies'historical trends, as the 22% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 24% annual revenue growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 3.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that Adaptive Biotechnologies is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Unfortunately, analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates revenues are expected to perform better than the wider market. Given the scope of the downgrades, it would not be a surprise to see the market become more wary of the business.
Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Adaptive Biotechnologies going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
