Analysts Have Lowered Expectations For The ExOne Company After Its Latest Results
One of the biggest stories of last week was how The ExOne Company (NASDAQ:XONE) shares plunged 23% in the week since its latest yearly results, closing yesterday at US$4.15. The results weren't stellar - revenue fell 6.4% short of analyst estimates at US$53m, although statutory losses were a relative bright spot. The per-share loss was US$0.93, 15% smaller than analysts were expecting prior to the result. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what top analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
See our latest analysis for ExOne
Following the latest results, ExOne's three analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$59.9m in 2020. This would be a notable 12% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share statutory losses are expected to explode, reaching US$0.61 per share. Before this earnings announcement, analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$67.3m and losses of US$0.48 per share in 2020. Indeed, we can see that analysts are a lot more bearish about ExOne's prospects following the latest results, administering a real cut to revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.
The average analyst price target fell 13% to US$9.17, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for ExOne's valuation. The consensus price target just an average of individual analyst targets, so - considering that the price target changed, it would be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on ExOne, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$12.00 and the most bearish at US$7.00 per share. This shows there is still quite a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
In addition, we can look to ExOne's past performance and see whether business is expected to improve, and if the company is expected to perform better than wider market. Analysts are definitely expecting ExOne's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 12% growth ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 9.6% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same market, which are forecast to grow their revenue 1.7% next year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, analysts also expect ExOne to grow faster than the wider market.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts reduced their loss per share estimates for next year, perhaps highlighting increased optimism around ExOne's prospects. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider market. The consensus price target fell measurably, with analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of ExOne's future valuation.
Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have estimates - from multiple ExOne analysts - going out to 2021, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
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