Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On Central Valley Community Bancorp's (NASDAQ:CVCY) Full-Year Report
Shareholders might have noticed that Central Valley Community Bancorp (NASDAQ:CVCY) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.7% to US$19.90 in the past week. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$89m and statutory earnings per share of US$2.17. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Central Valley Community Bancorp
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Central Valley Community Bancorp's five analysts is for revenues of US$144.0m in 2024. This would reflect a major 62% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plunge 29% to US$1.54 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$129.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.68 in 2024. While revenue forecasts have increased substantially, the analysts are a little more pessimistic on earnings, suggesting that the growth does not come without cost.
The consensus price target was unchanged at US$23.00, suggesting the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite some adjustments to profit and revenue forecasts. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Central Valley Community Bancorp, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$27.00 and the most bearish at US$20.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Central Valley Community Bancorp's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 62% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 4.3% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.3% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Central Valley Community Bancorp to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Central Valley Community Bancorp. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Central Valley Community Bancorp. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Central Valley Community Bancorp going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Central Valley Community Bancorp that you should be aware of.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
