Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On Selective Insurance Group, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:SIGI) Annual Report
Last week, you might have seen that Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:SIGI) released its full-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 8.1% to US$96.80 in the past week. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$4.2b and statutory earnings per share of US$5.84 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Selective Insurance Group is executing in line with expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
View our latest analysis for Selective Insurance Group
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Selective Insurance Group's five analysts is for revenues of US$4.82b in 2024. This reflects a notable 14% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 36% to US$8.00. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$4.74b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.76 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Selective Insurance Group's earnings potential following these results.
The consensus price target was unchanged at US$107, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Selective Insurance Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$120 and the most bearish at US$93.00 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Selective Insurance Group's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 14% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 9.4% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.7% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Selective Insurance Group to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Selective Insurance Group following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$107, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Selective Insurance Group analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Selective Insurance Group you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
