Analysts' Revenue Estimates For Biodesix, Inc. (NASDAQ:BDSX) Are Surging Higher
Celebrations may be in order for Biodesix, Inc. (NASDAQ:BDSX) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a significant upgrade to their statutory estimates for the company. The analysts have sharply increased their revenue numbers, with a view that Biodesix will make substantially more sales than they'd previously expected.
Following the latest upgrade, the current consensus, from the three analysts covering Biodesix, is for revenues of US$39m in 2022, which would reflect a disturbing 29% reduction in Biodesix's sales over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to see a sharp uptick, reaching US$1.52. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$35m and losses of US$1.61 per share in 2022. We can see there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a sizeable upgrade to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time reducing their loss estimates.
See our latest analysis for Biodesix
The consensus price target fell 19%, to US$11.33, suggesting that the analysts remain pessimistic on the company, despite the improved earnings and revenue outlook. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Biodesix analyst has a price target of US$17.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$7.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 29% by the end of 2022. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 48% over the last three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 7.5% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Biodesix's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The highlight for us was that the consensus reduced its estimated losses this year, perhaps suggesting Biodesix is moving incrementally towards profitability. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting revenues to grow slower than the wider market. The consensus price target fell measurably, with analysts seemingly not reassured by recent business developments, leading to a lower estimate of Biodesix's future valuation. Seeing the dramatic upgrade to this year's forecasts, it might be time to take another look at Biodesix.
Analysts are clearly in love with Biodesix at the moment, but before diving in - you should be aware that we've identified some warning flags with the business, such as a short cash runway. You can learn more, and discover the 4 other concerns we've identified, for free on our platform here.
Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
