Analysts Are Updating Their Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (NYSE:ASPN) Estimates After Its Yearly Results
Shareholders will be ecstatic, with their stake up 51% over the past week following Aspen Aerogels, Inc.'s (NYSE:ASPN) latest full-year results. Revenues of US$239m were in line with expectations, although statutory losses per share were US$0.66, some 14% smaller than was expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Check out our latest analysis for Aspen Aerogels
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Aspen Aerogels' eight analysts is for revenues of US$361.8m in 2024. This would reflect a sizeable 52% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 69% to US$0.18. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$354.8m and losses of US$0.20 per share in 2024. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers were unchanged.
The average price target held steady at US$20.00, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Aspen Aerogels at US$24.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$14.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Aspen Aerogels' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 52% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 14% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.2% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Aspen Aerogels is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Aspen Aerogels going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for Aspen Aerogels (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you need to be mindful of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
