Will Arecor Therapeutics (LON:AREC) Spend Its Cash Wisely?
Even when a business is losing money, it's possible for shareholders to make money if they buy a good business at the right price. For example, although software-as-a-service business Salesforce.com lost money for years while it grew recurring revenue, if you held shares since 2005, you'd have done very well indeed. Having said that, unprofitable companies are risky because they could potentially burn through all their cash and become distressed.
So should Arecor Therapeutics (LON:AREC) shareholders be worried about its cash burn? In this article, we define cash burn as its annual (negative) free cash flow, which is the amount of money a company spends each year to fund its growth. First, we'll determine its cash runway by comparing its cash burn with its cash reserves.
Check out our latest analysis for Arecor Therapeutics
How Long Is Arecor Therapeutics' Cash Runway?
A company's cash runway is calculated by dividing its cash hoard by its cash burn. In June 2023, Arecor Therapeutics had UK£8.2m in cash, and was debt-free. Importantly, its cash burn was UK£11m over the trailing twelve months. That means it had a cash runway of around 9 months as of June 2023. To be frank, this kind of short runway puts us on edge, as it indicates the company must reduce its cash burn significantly, or else raise cash imminently. Importantly, if we extrapolate recent cash burn trends, the cash runway would be a lot longer. You can see how its cash balance has changed over time in the image below.
How Well Is Arecor Therapeutics Growing?
At first glance it's a bit worrying to see that Arecor Therapeutics actually boosted its cash burn by 36%, year on year. On a more positive note, the operating revenue improved by 143% over the period, offering an indication that the expenditure may well be worthwhile. If that revenue does keep flowing reliably, then the company could see a strong improvement in free cash flow simply by reducing growth expenditure. It seems to be growing nicely. While the past is always worth studying, it is the future that matters most of all. For that reason, it makes a lot of sense to take a look at our analyst forecasts for the company.
How Easily Can Arecor Therapeutics Raise Cash?
While Arecor Therapeutics seems to be in a fairly good position, it's still worth considering how easily it could raise more cash, even just to fuel faster growth. Generally speaking, a listed business can raise new cash through issuing shares or taking on debt. One of the main advantages held by publicly listed companies is that they can sell shares to investors to raise cash and fund growth. We can compare a company's cash burn to its market capitalisation to get a sense for how many new shares a company would have to issue to fund one year's operations.
Since it has a market capitalisation of UK£51m, Arecor Therapeutics' UK£11m in cash burn equates to about 22% of its market value. That's fairly notable cash burn, so if the company had to sell shares to cover the cost of another year's operations, shareholders would suffer some costly dilution.
Is Arecor Therapeutics' Cash Burn A Worry?
On this analysis of Arecor Therapeutics' cash burn, we think its revenue growth was reassuring, while its cash runway has us a bit worried. We don't think its cash burn is particularly problematic, but after considering the range of factors in this article, we do think shareholders should be monitoring how it changes over time. Readers need to have a sound understanding of business risks before investing in a stock, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Arecor Therapeutics that potential shareholders should take into account before putting money into a stock.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies insiders are buying, and this list of stocks growth stocks (according to analyst forecasts)
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
