ASM International NV (AMS:ASM) Analysts Are Pretty Bullish On The Stock After Recent Results
The full-year results for ASM International NV (AMS:ASM) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenues of €2.6b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at €15.18, missing estimates by 4.2%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
View our latest analysis for ASM International
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from ASM International's 20 analysts is for revenues of €2.80b in 2024. This reflects a credible 6.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to fall 20% to €12.25 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €2.88b and earnings per share (EPS) of €13.05 in 2024. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the minor downgrade to earnings per share expectations.
The average price target climbed 7.4% to €562despite the reduced earnings forecasts, suggesting that this earnings impact could be a positive for the stock, once it passes. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values ASM International at €740 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €410. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that ASM International's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 6.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 22% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 11% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that ASM International is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on ASM International. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for ASM International going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for ASM International that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
