Astrana Health, Inc. Just Beat EPS By 9.3%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
It's been a good week for Astrana Health, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTH) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 8.0% to US$45.04. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$1.4b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Astrana Health surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$1.29 per share, modestly greater than expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Astrana Health
Following the latest results, Astrana Health's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$1.77b in 2024. This would be a huge 27% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to expand 17% to US$1.49. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.79b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.37 in 2024. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.
The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 13% to US$53.33. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Astrana Health, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$70.00 and the most bearish at US$41.00 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Astrana Health's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 27% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 22% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.8% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Astrana Health is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Astrana Health following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Astrana Health. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Astrana Health going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..
We also provide an overview of the Astrana Health Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
