Will AstraZeneca (AZN) Deliver a Beat This Earnings Season?
We expect AstraZeneca AZN to beat expectations when it reports second-quarter 2022 results on Jul 29, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 10.47%.
AstraZeneca topped earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters. AZN has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 1.32%, on average.
AstraZeneca PLC Price and EPS Surprise
AstraZeneca PLC price-eps-surprise | AstraZeneca PLC Quote
AstraZeneca’s stock has risen 13.6% this year so far compared with an increase of 3.6% for the industry
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Factors to Consider
Sales of AstraZeneca’s key medicines, mainly cancer drugs — Lynparza, Tagrisso and Imfinzi — and diabetes medicine Farxiga are expected to have driven the company’s top line in the second quarter backed by strong demand trends. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lynparza, Tagrisso, Imfinzi and Farxiga is $697 million, $1.36 billion, $668, million and $1.0 billion, respectively.
AstraZeneca’s COVID products, COVID-19 vaccine, Vaxzevria and new antibody cocktail medicine Evusheld are likely to have been key contributors to the top line.
AstraZeneca’s other drugs, Fasenra, Calquence and newer products, triple combo COPD treatment Breztri and lupus drug, Saphnelo (anifrolumab) are likely to have contributed to sales growth in the soon-to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Fasenra is $365 million.
Product sales of some drugs like Brilinta/Brilique and Pulmicort in the past few quarters were hurt due to COVID-related disruptions. The trend is likely to have continued in the second quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Brilinta/Brilique and Pulmicort are $379 million and $187 million, respectively.
Sales of AstraZeneca’s major legacy drugs have been declining due to rising generic competition. The trend is likely to have continued in the second quarter.
Sales of AstraZeneca’s Rare Disease drugs like Soliris and Ultomiris, which were added following the Alexion acquisition, are also expected to have been higher and might have contributed to the top line.
Overall, sales in China are likely to have been hurt due to pricing pressure associated with the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) and volume-based procurement (VBP) programs. The pandemic is likely to have continued to hurt diagnosis and treatment rates of cancer medicines, possibly offset by strong growth in ex-China emerging markets.
Earnings Whispers
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for AstraZeneca in the to-be-reported quarter. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for a likely positive surprise. This is the case here, as elaborated below.
Earnings ESP: AstraZeneca’s Earnings ESP is +1.38% as the Most Accurate Estimate of 79 cents is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 78 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: AstraZeneca has a Zacks Rank #3
Other Stocks to Consider
Here are some large drug/biotech stocks that also have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Gilead Sciences GILD has an Earnings ESP of +2.71% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Gilead’s stock has declined 15.5% this year so far. Gilead topped earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters. Gilead has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.30%, on average. GILD is scheduled to release its second-quarter 2022 results on Aug 2.
Bayer BAYRY has an Earnings ESP of +5.26% and a Zacks Rank #3.
Bayer’s performance has been pretty impressive, with the company exceeding earnings expectations in each of the trailing four quarters. It delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 17.71%, on average.
Bayer is scheduled to release its second-quarter 2022 results on Aug 4. The stock is up 9.6% this year so far.
BioNTech BNTX has an Earnings ESP of +1.99% and a Zacks Rank #2.
BioNTech’s stock has plunged 38.1% this year so far. BioNTech topped earnings estimates in all the last four quarters. BioNTech has a four-quarter earnings surprise of 56.87%, on average.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
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