Atmos (ATO) Down 2% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Atmos Energy (ATO). Shares have lost about 2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Atmos due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Atmos Energy Q3 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Fall Y/Y
Atmos Energy Corporation posted fiscal third-quarter 2023 earnings of 94 cents per share, which missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 97 cents by 3.1%. The bottom line improved 2.2% from the year-ago quarter’s level of 92 cents.
The year-over-year increase in earnings was due to rate case outcomes in both Distribution and Pipeline and Storage segments and customer growth in the former segment. This was partially offset by higher operation and maintenance expenses and higher depreciation and property tax expenses owing to increased capital investments.
Revenues
Total revenues of $662.7 million lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,014 million by 34.7%. The top line also decreased 18.8% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number of $816.4 million.
Segmental Revenues
Distribution: Revenues in fiscal third-quarter 2023 totaled $616.1 million, indicating a 20.3% decline from $773.3 million in the year-ago quarter.
Pipeline and Storage: Revenues amounted to $208.2 million, implying a 13.5% increase from $183.4 million a year ago.
Highlights of the Release
The purchased gas cost for fiscal third-quarter 2023 totaled $44.6 million, down 82.1% year over year. Operation and maintenance expenses amounted to $195 million, up 7% from the year-ago quarter’s level.
Operating income totaled $169.3 million in the reported quarter, up 9.5% from the year-ago quarter’s level.
Atmos Energy incurred interest expenses of $31.3 million, up 19.6% year over year.
The company reported 75.3 million cubic feet (MMcf) consolidated distribution throughput for the quarter, down 5.1% from the year-ago quarter’s actual. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same was pegged at 83 MMcf for the same time frame.
Consolidated pipeline and storage transportation volumes came in at 172.3 MMcf, up 17.7% year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same was pinned at 175 MMcf for the same duration.
Financial Highlights
As of Jun 30, 2023, Atmos Energy reported a strong balance sheet with available liquidity of approximately $3.1 billion.
As of Jun 30, 2023, ATO had cash and cash equivalents of $56.2 million compared with $51.6 million as of Sep 30, 2022. As of Jun 30, 2023, long-term debt was $6,553.6 million compared with $5,760.6 million as of Sep 30, 2022.
Net cash flow provided by operating activities in the first nine months of 2023 was $3,221.5 million compared with $929.3 million in the year-ago period.
Capital expenditures amounted to $2,083.5 million for the first nine months of 2023, with nearly 86% of the amount being related to system safety and reliability investments.
Guidance
Atmos Energy Reaffirmed its fiscal 2023 earnings guidance in the range of $6.00-$6.10 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same is pegged at $6.06 per share, a tad higher than the midpoint of the guided range.
ATO expects nearly $2.8 billion of capital expenditures in fiscal 2023.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
Estimates revision followed an upward path over the past two months.
VGM Scores
At this time, Atmos has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. However, the stock was allocated a grade of C on the value side, putting it in the middle 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Atmos has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.
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